Strategies for the Fantasy Football Bonus Point System

Strategies for the Fantasy Football Bonus Point System

This season the Bonus Point System has changed and the players we normally expect to get points have not performed well at all. The new bonus points system seems not to reward assists, wingers and attacking defenders as much as last year. We investigate what is going on.

Fantasy Football Manager Summary

Methodology

In this article we look at how the bonus points are calculated. We investigate each bonus point “event” to see if it has a material effect on the overall Bonus Point System points (‘BPS points’) and the types of players most impacted. We propose a way of thinking about players by position so you can identify who is likely to collect the most BPS points. Finally we look at this season compared to previous seasons to identify if the bonus point allocation to date has been unusual.

Results

We found players will earn bonus points relative to their position on the pitch.

PositionDefault
BPS
Top
BPS
EventLikelyhood of top BPSOther
Goalkeeper510Clean SheetEvery 3-4 games
Centerbacks610Clean SheetEvery 3-4 games
Wingbacks48Clean Sheet3 times per season+ 4 BPS for a goal
Defensive Central Mids5
Attacking Central Mids410AssistEvery 3-4 games+ 3 BPS for a goal
Wingers36AssistEvery 4 – 5 games+ 3 BPS for a goal
Forwards210GoalEvery 2 – 3 games+ 3 BPS for an assist

The top BPS is the points they are likely to earn if the event occurs. For example, if a defender keeps a clean sheet they are likely to earn 10 BPS points, but only earn 6 BPS points if they do not keep a clean sheet. We found there is evidence to suggest forwards and attacking central midfielders will earn more bonus points than to-date, but we expect wingers are unlikely to earn many more bonus points than to date.

Conclusion

In the absence of goals, center backs offer the greatest chance of BPS points. If a goal is scored then forwards and central attacking midfielders offer the greatest chance of BPS points. Wingers and wingbacks have been penalised because they have less opportunity to earn BPS points by virtue of their playing position, although a goal or an assist will help, and it is likely wingers will turn out to be over valued unless the winger also scores goals. We advocate prioritising attacking central mids over wingers, for example, Debele over Chadli. We also think overlaping fullbacks like Rafael will be seen as over valued and I expect more points to be found in central defenders and attacking  central midfielders. However, we do not see enough evidence for a move away from 3-4-3 if you have the right mids., although we see benefit in 4-3-3.

Our stats

Our next step (next week) is to include the below analysis in our statistical rankings. We will update the points we expect each position to earn, re-rank the players, and then provide you with a new BPS rank where each player is rated “Good,” “OK,” or “Poor” on the likelihood of them scoring a sufficient amount of BPS points.

How are bonus points earned?

Bonus PointsJust like previous seasons, bonus points are the allocated to players based on the 3-2-1 structure. What has changed is the way that the bonus points are calculated. OPTA are now providing the stats to EA who will then calculate the bonuses based on the criteria that has been posted on the Fantasy Premier League site. The following explanation is from the FPL site’s rules section: A new Bonus Points System (BPS) has been created which utilises a range of statistics to create a BPS score for every player. The three best performing players in each match will be awarded bonus points. 3 points will be awarded to the highest scoring player, 2 to the second best and 1 to the third. Examples of how bonus point ties will be resolved are as follows:

  • If there is a tie for first place, Players 1 & 2 will receive 3 points each and Player 3 will receive 1 point.
  • If there is a tie for second place, Player 1 will receive 3 points and Players 2 and 3 will receive 2 points each.
  • If there is a tie for third place, Player 1 will receive 3 points, Player 2 will receive 2 points and Players 3 & 4 will receive 1 point each.

How is the BPS score calculated? Players score BPS points based on the following statistics (one point for each unless otherwise stated):

  • Playing in a game
  • Playing over 60 minutes
  • Scoring goals
  • Goalkeepers and defenders (4 points)
  • Midfielders (6 points)
  • Forwards (8 points)
  • Assists (3 points)
  • Goalkeepers and defenders keeping a clean sheet (4 points)
  • Saving a penalty (5 points)
  • For every 3 saves
  • For every 3 open play crosses
  • Creating a big chance (a chance where the receiving player should score)
  • For every 8 clearances, blocks and interceptions (total)
  • For every 8 recoveries
  • Providing key passes
  • Making 3 tackles
  • Scoring the goal that wins a match
  • Pass Completion (after making at least 30 passes)
  • 70% completion (1 point)
  • 80% completion (2 points)
  • 90% completion (3 points)

Players lose BPS points based on the following statistics (one point for each unless otherwise stated):

  • Conceding a penalty
  • Missing a penalty (-2 points)
  • For every 2 goals conceded by goalkeepers and defenders
  • Yellow cards
  • Red cards (-3 points)
  • Own goals (-2 points)
  • Missing a big chance
  • Making an error which leads to a goal
  • Every 2 errors leading to an attempt at goal
  • Being tackled 3 times
  • Conceding 2 fouls
  • Being caught offside 3 times
  • Missing the target with 3 shots

Data is supplied by Opta and once it has been marked as final will not be changed. For the avoidance of doubt, points awarded in-game are subject to change up until one hour after the final whistle of the last match of any given day. Once the points have all been updated on that day, no further adjustments to points will be made.” Preseason we identified that Mertesacker would have earned more BPS than Baines.

Picturestats

That is not to say Mert would have earned more Bonus Points than Baines, only more BPS. Lets look at each of the bonus point rules each in turn to see why.

What metrics matter in the Bonus Point System?

Thank you to www.whoscored.com for most of the stats.

  • Playing in a game
    • Every player who features in a game gets one BPS. So this is no different and we will ignore this metric when choosing players.
  • Playing over 60 minutes
    • We advocate picking players who play, not super subs. There is an underlying expectation that every player you choose is a first team player, so we will ignore this metric when choosing players.
  • Scoring goals
    • Goalkeepers and defenders (4 points)
      • The goalies and defenders who scored 3 or more goals last season are
        NameTeamPositionGamesGoals
        Leighton BainesEvertonD(L)385
        Branislav IvanovicChelseaD(CR)33(1)5
        Jan VertonghenTottenhamD(CL)344
        Emmerson BoyceWiganD(CR),M(R)364
        Patrice EvraManchester UnitedD(L)344
        Daniel AggerLiverpoolD(CL)353
        Angel RangelSwanseaD(R)30(3)3
        Russell MartinNorwichD(CR)30(1)3
        RafaelManchester UnitedD(R)27(1)3
        Gareth McAuleyWest Bromwich Al…D(C)363
        Per MertesackerArsenalD(C)33(1)3
        Sébastien BassongNorwichD(C)343
        Michael TurnerNorwichD(C)25(1)3
        Jonny EvansManchester UnitedD(C)21(2)3

        We can see quite a few players get 3, 4 or 5 goals per season. However, the first 9 players are wide defenders and not central defenders. Below you will see central players have a greater opportunity for BPS points than wide players.

    • Midfielders (6 points)
      • The midfielders who scored 6 or more goals last season are
        NameTeamPositionGamesGoals
        Gareth BaleTottenhamD(L),M(CLR)3321
        MichuSwanseaAM(C),FW3518
        Frank LampardChelseaM(C)21(8)15
        Theo WalcottArsenalAM(R),FW24(8)14
        Santiago CazorlaArsenalM(CLR)37(1)12
        Juan MataChelseaAM(CLR)31(4)12
        Marouane FellainiManchester UnitedM(C)3111
        Kevin NolanWest HamAM(C)3510
        Steven GerrardLiverpoolM(C)369
        Eden HazardChelseaAM(CLR)31(3)9
        Jonathan WaltersStokeAM(CLR),FW388
        Clint DempseyTottenhamAM(CLR),FW22(7)7
        Yaya TouréManchester CityM(C)327
        Stéphane SessegnonSunderlandAM(CLR),FW34(1)7
        Kevin MirallasEvertonAM(CLR)23(4)6
        Yohan CabayeNewcastle UnitedM(C)25(1)6
        Robert SnodgrassNorwichM(LR)35(2)6
        Jason PuncheonSouthamptonAM(R)25(7)6
        Steven PienaarEvertonAM(CLR)356
        Craig GardnerSunderlandD(R),M(CR)32(1)6
        Shaun MaloneyWiganAM(CLR)34(2)6
        Shinji KagawaManchester UnitedAM(CL)17(3)6
        Mikel ArtetaArsenalDM(C),M(L)346

        The majority of these midfielders who score play through the center. This is a theme you will read about again and again.

    • Forwards (8 points)
      • The forwards who scored 10 goals or more last season are
        NameTeamPositionGamesGoals
        Robin van PersieManchester UnitedFW35(3)26
        Luis SuárezLiverpoolAM(CLR),FW3323
        Christian BentekeAston VillaFW32(2)19
        Romelu LukakuWest Bromwich Al…FW20(15)17
        Rickie LambertSouthamptonFW35(3)15
        Dimitar BerbatovFulhamAM(C),FW32(1)15
        Edin DzekoManchester CityFW16(16)14
        Demba BaNewcastle UnitedAM(L),FW19(1)13
        Wayne RooneyManchester UnitedAM(CL),FW22(5)12
        Sergio AgüeroManchester CityAM(CL),FW22(8)12
        Jermain DefoeTottenhamFW27(7)11
        Olivier GiroudArsenalFW24(10)11
        Carlos TévezManchester CityAM(C),FW28(6)11
        Arouna KonéWiganAM(R),FW32(2)11
        Steven FletcherSunderlandAM(R),FW2811
        Lukas PodolskiArsenalAM(CL),FW25(8)11
        Javier HernándezManchester UnitedFW9(13)10

        Interestingly only RVP, Suarez and Benteke achieved more than one goal every two games. Below you will see forwards have limited opportunity to earn BPS points other than from goals and assists, and have greater opportunity to lose BPS points week in week out.

    • Assists (3 points)
      • The players who provided the most assists last season are
        NameTeamPositionGamesAssists
        Juan MataChelseaAM(CLR)31(4)12
        Santiago CazorlaArsenalM(CLR)37(1)11
        Eden HazardChelseaAM(CLR)31(3)11
        Theo WalcottArsenalAM(R),FW24(8)10
        Wayne RooneyManchester UnitedAM(CL),FW22(5)10
        Lukas PodolskiArsenalAM(CL),FW25(8)9
        Steven GerrardLiverpoolM(C)369
        Robin van PersieManchester UnitedFW35(3)8
        Carlos TévezManchester CityAM(C),FW28(6)8
        Shaun MaloneyWiganAM(CLR)34(2)8
        David SilvaManchester CityAM(CLR)29(3)8
        Bryan RuizFulhamAM(CR)26(3)7
        Aaron LennonTottenhamAM(R)33(1)7
        Damien DuffFulhamAM(LR)27(4)7
        Samir NasriManchester CityAM(CLR)22(6)7
        Jean BeausejourWiganD(L),M(L)32(2)7
        Jobi McAnuffReadingAM(CL)387
        Fernando TorresChelseaFW28(8)6
        Robert SnodgrassNorwichM(LR)35(2)6
        Steven PienaarEvertonAM(CLR)356
        Jonathan De GuzmánSwanseaM(C)33(4)6
        Adam JohnsonSunderlandAM(LR)356
        Pablo HernándezSwanseaAM(CLR)27(3)6
        Ashley WestwoodAston VillaDM(C)28(2)6

        These are the players who last season earned loads of bonus points. I think it is best to focus on the central players and strikers (who score more than 10) on this list. Cazorla, Hazard, Gerrard and De Guzman all stand out to me.

  • Goalkeepers and defenders keeping a clean sheet (4 points)
    • The players who kept the most clean sheets last season are
      NameTeamPositionClean
      Sheets
      HartMCIGK18
      JohnsonLIVDF16
      AggerLIVDF15
      CechCHEGK14
      MertesackerARSDF14
      BegovicSTKGK12
      IvanovicCHEDF12
      Jose EnriqueLIVDF12
      BainesEVDF11
      JaaskelainenWHUGK11
      MignoletSUNGK11
      EvraMUNDF10
      JagielkaEVEDF10
      VertonghenTOTDF9

      So a goalkeeper like Joe Hart will earn 4 points every other game, where as Evra will earn 4 points every 3 games.

  • Saving a penalty (5 points)
    • Penalty saves are infrequent. In finals and playoff there is an expectation the goal keeper will only save one in five penalties. This table shows the total number of penalty saves per season
      YearAwardedScoredMissedSaved
      20078261417
      2008836788
      200910685219
      201010179814
      20119971622
      20128366415
      20139603

      There is an average of 13.57 saves per season, or just under one save every three weeks. Last season Schwarzer made the most saves of all of the premiership keepers with 3. Nobody else achieved 3 saves in the season. Despite there being 3 saves this season already, the “Penalty Save” is a fairly unusual event and we should ignore this metric when choosing players unless you spot a goal keeper behind a particularly clumsy set of defenders.

  • For every 3 saves
    • A save is a save, surely? Well OPTA say a save is when the goalkeeper prevents the ball from entering the goal with any part of his body. So the ball has to be heading into the goal for it to be a save. The average saves per game are
      DateTeamNameMinsSavesSPG
      2012/13MCIHart3420751.97
      2011/12MCIHart3420992.61
      2012/13WHUJaaskelainen34201564.11
      2011/12WHUJaaskelainen1620633.5
      2012/13STKBegovic34201173.08
      2011/12STKBegovic1998843.78
      2012/13CHECech31951263.55
      2011/12CHECech3060942.76
      2012/13SUNMignolet34201554.08
      2011/12SUNMignolet2571913.19
      2012/13FULSchwarzer32401383.83
      2011/12FULSchwarzer27001063.53
      2012/13LIVReina2790812.61
      2011/12LIVReina3051852.51
      2012/13EVEHoward3240982.72
      2011/12EVEHoward3420882.32
      2012/13MUNde Gea2520893.18
      2011/12MUNde Gea26101113.83
      2012/13WBAFoster27001003.33
      2011/12WBAFoster33301092.95
      2012/13AVLGuzan32401313.64
      2011/12AVLGuzan593213.19
      2012/13ARSSzczesny2250712.84
      2011/12ARSSzczesny3420822.16
      2012/13SWAVorm2307893.47
      2011/12SWAVorm33301433.86
      2012/13TOTLloris2430582.15
      2012/13QPRCesar2098964.12
      2012/13NEWKrul2126763.22
      2011/12NEWKrul34201143
      2012/13WIGAl-Habsi2610873
      2011/12WIGAl-Habsi34201303.42
      2012/13NORRuddy1341543.62
      2011/12NORRuddy33191403.8
      2012/13RDGFederici1890833.95
      2012/13SOUBoruc1755462.36
      2012/13NORBunn1853612.96
      2011/12NORBunn270113.67
      2012/13SWATremmel1113564.53
      2012/13RDGMcCarthy1170745.69

      As you can see, most goal keepers average around 3 saves per game and rarely reach 6 saves per game. When picking goalkeepers we should assume all keepers will earn this BPS point, with the exception of Hart and Cech who don’t get as many opportunities to save.

  • For every 3 open play crosses
    • OPTA define a cross as a pass from a wide position into a specific area in front of the goal. The ball must be in play and not from a dead ball situation such as a corner, free kick, throw-in, goal kick or a goalkeeper pass-from-hands. The players with the highest number of crosses in the last few seasons are
      YearRank
      In Year
      NameTeamPositionGamesAverage
      Crosses
      Per Game
      20121Leighton BainesEvertonD(L)382.8
      20111Jermaine PennantStokeAM(R)18(9)2.6
      20112Martin PetrovBoltonAM(LR)30(1)2.4
      20122Robert SnodgrassNorwichM(LR)35(2)2.2
      20123Barry BannanAston VillaM(CLR)18(6)2.2
      20124Jonathan De GuzmánSwanseaM(C)33(4)2.1
      20113Sebastian LarssonSunderlandM(CLR)322.1
      20125Jean BeausejourWiganD(L),M(L)32(2)2
      20114Leighton BainesEvertonD(L)332
      20115Matthew EtheringtonStokeM(LR)302
      20116Matthew JarvisWolverhampton …AM(LR)31(6)2

      The difficulty here is knowing what the Open Play Cross rate is. Looking only at crosses, in the last three season only Baines, Pennant and Barton have come close to 3 crosses per game, so the “open play crosses” value has to be the same or lower. I think we can assume most player will rarely achieve three open play crosses and for the most part we can discount this metric. I also think this is one part of the reason why midfielders are not getting as many bonus points this season. I think if you spot a player who crosses, like Nani, Lennon, etc, who has a good run of fixtures where he has a chance to be attacking, then keep this metric in mind for one extra BPS. For the majority of players we can ignore this BPS metric.

  • Creating a big chance (a chance where the receiving player should score)
    • OPTA say a big chance is a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score usually in a one-on-one scenario or from very close range. So the creation of a big chance is the person who passed the ball prior to creating the big chance. This table shows the average number of big chances per game
      YearRank
      In Year
      NameTeamPositionGamesAverage
      Scoring
      Chances
      Created
      20121Santiago CazorlaArsenalM(CLR)37(1)0.8
      20122David SilvaManchester CityAM(CLR)29(3)0.5
      20113Luka ModricTottenhamM(CL)360.5
      20114Samir NasriManchester CityAM(CLR)26(4)0.5
      20112David SilvaManchester CityAM(CLR)33(3)0.5
      201110Juan MataChelseaAM(CLR)29(5)0.4
      20115Robin van PersieArsenalFW37(1)0.4
      20117Charlie AdamLiverpoolDM(C)27(1)0.4
      20116Rafael van der VaartTottenhamAM(CLR)28(5)0.4
      20123Luis SuárezLiverpoolAM(CLR),FW330.4
      20126Jack WilshereArsenalM(CL)20(5)0.4
      20118Tomas RosickyArsenalM(CLR)19(9)0.4
      20125Jordi GómezWiganAM(CLR)17(15)0.4
      20124Yaya TouréManchester CityM(C)320.4
      201111David LuizChelseaD(C),DM(C)18(2)0.4

      Soccer_NetForwards get the big chance, but it is usually attacking midfielders and forwards create the big chance. Cazorla features highly as does Young, Silva and Nasri. All other players have an average of less than one big chance every two games. I think we can ignore this metric when choosing players, however, I do thinks this is another reason why midfielders are not getting as many bonus points this season.

  • For every 8 clearances, blocks and interceptions (total)
    • A clearance is a defensive action where a player kicks the ball away from his own goal with no intended recipient of the ball. A block is where a player blocks a shot from an opposing player, and an interception is where a player intentionally intercepts a pass by moving into the line of the intended ball. Repeating the above analysis – without overdoing the tables, the highest average number of blocked shots per game was 1.4, most central defenders were around 1 and other defenders and defensive mids were around 0.5; the highest number of interceptions per game was Morgan Schneiderlin at 3.8, most defensive mids and central defenders were between 2 and 3 interceptions per game, and other defenders were between 2.5 and 1.5; so clearances seems to have the biggest impact on this BPS event. The top 20 players for clearances last season were
    • PositionNameTeamPositionGamesAverage
      Clearances
      Per Game
      1Ciaran ClarkAston VillaD(CL),DM(C)28(1)11.3
      2Ryan NelsenQueens Park Ran…D(C)2111
      3James CollinsWest HamD(C)2910.9
      4Ashley WilliamsSwanseaD(C)3710.3
      5Michael DawsonTottenhamD(C)23(4)10
      6Clint HillQueens Park Ran…D(CL)319.9
      7Brede HangelandFulhamD(C)359.6
      8Carlos CuéllarSunderlandD(CR)269.2
      9Sylvain DistinEvertonD(C)31(3)9.2
      10Nathan BakerAston VillaD(CL)25(1)9.1
      11Winston ReidWest HamD(C)368.9
      12Steven TaylorNewcastle UnitedD(C)24(1)8.8
      13Jose FonteSouthamptonD(C)25(2)8.8
      14Jan VertonghenTottenhamD(CL)348.7
      15ChicoSwanseaD(CR)268.7
      16Adrian MariappaReadingD(C)298.4
      17Jonny EvansManchester UnitedD(C)21(2)8.3
      18Aaron HughesFulhamD(CR)23(1)8.1
      19Robert HuthStokeD(CR)358
      20John O’SheaSunderlandD(CLR)347.9

      You can see this is highest for central defenders. So central defenders tend to do more clearances, more blocks and more interceptions than most other players. While it seems obvious, you can see from the stats that central defenders should earn an extra bonus point compared to other positions, and in “end-to-end” games they should earn two points. This could be why Zabaleta has earned far more bonus points than other city defenders and more than Hart.

  • For every 8 recoveries
    • A recovery is where a player wins back the ball after it has gone loose or where the ball has been played directly to him. I have been unable to find any published information on “recoveries” other than for Liverpool FC, and if you find any please let me know so we can include this in the analysis.
  • Providing key passes
    • OPTA say a key pass is different from a big chance. A key pass is a pass/cross that is instrumental in creating a goal-scoring opportunity, for example a corner or free-kick to a player who then assists an attempt, a chance-creating through ball or cross into a dangerous position. While defenders can earn points by doing what matters to them (one point for every 8 interceptions, clearances and interceptions, so most defenders should earn one extra point, perhaps 2), this metric allows attacking players mids and forwards to pick up BPS points. This table shows the 40 players with the highest average number of key passes per game for last season.
      PositionNameTeamPositionGamesAverage
      Key Passes
      Per Game
      1David SilvaManchester CityAM(CLR)29(3)3.3
      2Leighton BainesEvertonD(L)383.1
      3Luis SuárezLiverpoolAM(CLR),FW332.7
      4Juan MataChelseaAM(CLR)31(4)2.7
      5Steven GerrardLiverpoolM(C)362.6
      6Santiago CazorlaArsenalM(CLR)37(1)2.5
      7Adel TaarabtQueens Park Ran…AM(CL)25(6)2.5
      8Steven PienaarEvertonAM(CLR)352.3
      9Gareth BaleTottenhamD(L),M(CLR)332.3
      10Stewart DowningLiverpoolM(LR)25(4)2.2
      11Rickie LambertSouthamptonFW35(3)2.1
      12Yohan CabayeNewcastle UnitedM(C)25(1)2
      13Aaron LennonTottenhamAM(R)33(1)2
      14Samir NasriManchester CityAM(CLR)22(6)2
      15Esteban GraneroQueens Park Ran…M(CR)19(5)2
      16Eden HazardChelseaAM(CLR)31(3)1.9
      17Jean BeausejourWiganD(L),M(L)32(2)1.9
      18Jack WilshereArsenalM(CL)20(5)1.9
      19Chris BruntWest Bromwich Al…M(CLR)23(8)1.9
      20Mousa DembéléTottenhamM(CR),FW26(4)1.8
      21Pablo HernándezSwanseaAM(CLR)27(3)1.8
      22Shaun MaloneyWiganAM(CLR)34(2)1.8
      23James MorrisonWest Bromwich Al…M(CLR)33(2)1.8
      24Robin van PersieManchester UnitedFW35(3)1.8
      25Wayne RooneyManchester UnitedAM(CL),FW22(5)1.8
      26Carlos TévezManchester CityAM(C),FW28(6)1.8
      27Robert SnodgrassNorwichM(LR)35(2)1.8
      28James MilnerManchester CityM(CLR)19(7)1.7
      29Bryan RuizFulhamAM(CR)26(3)1.7
      30Jonathan De GuzmánSwanseaM(C)33(4)1.6
      31Kevin MirallasEvertonAM(CLR)23(4)1.6
      32Adam JohnsonSunderlandAM(LR)351.6
      33Christian BentekeAston VillaFW32(2)1.6
      34Wayne RoutledgeSwanseaAM(CLR)30(6)1.6
      35Sylvain MarveauxNewcastle UnitedAM(CLR)10(12)1.5
      36Gary O’NeilWest HamM(CR)17(7)1.5
      37Raheem SterlingLiverpoolAM(LR)19(5)1.5
      38Kyle WalkerTottenhamD(R)361.5
      39Mark NobleWest HamDM(C)25(3)1.5
      40Matthew JarvisWest HamAM(LR)29(3)1.4

      What is interesting about this table is these are the play makers we read about in the papers. So Silva and Baines in-effect start every game with 3 BPS, Suraez, Gerrard etc start with two. There is also a loose correlation between the players who make key chances and the players who get fouled a lot.

      RankNameTeamPositionGamesFouls
      Against
      1Stéphane SessegnonSunderlandAM(CLR),FW34(1)2.5
      2Shaun MaloneyWiganAM(CLR)34(2)2.5
      3Steven PienaarEvertonAM(CLR)352.5
      4Robert SnodgrassNorwichM(LR)35(2)2.4
      5Eden HazardChelseaAM(CLR)31(3)2.3
      6Demba BaNewcastle UnitedAM(L),FW19(1)2.3
      7Danny RoseSunderlandD(L)25(2)2.3
      8Raheem SterlingLiverpoolAM(LR)19(5)2.3
      9Giorgos KaragounisFulhamAM(C)20(5)2.2
      10Andy CarrollWest HamFW22(2)2.2
      11Jack WilshereArsenalM(CL)20(5)2.1
      12Adel TaarabtQueens Park Ran…AM(CL)25(6)1.9
      13Nathan DyerSwanseaAM(R)25(12)1.9
      14Jobi McAnuffReadingAM(CL)381.9
      15Leon OsmanEvertonM(CLR)361.9
      16Luis SuárezLiverpoolAM(CLR),FW331.8
      17Jonás GutiérrezNewcastle UnitedM(CLR)341.8
      18Shane LongWest Bromwich Al…FW25(9)1.7
      19Gastón RamírezSouthamptonAM(CR),FW20(6)1.7
      20Bryan RuizFulhamAM(CR)26(3)1.7
  • Making 3 tackles (NET)
    • OPTA say a tackle is awarded if a player wins the ball from another player who is in possession. If he is attempting to beat the tackler, the other player will get an unsuccessful Take-on. If he is in possession but not attempting to “beat” his man, then he will get a dispossessed. A goalkeeper who comes out and claims the ball at the feet of a forward gets a smother, similar but not the same as a tackle. So we can exclude mareric goalkeepers from this :)
    • Be aware this is net successful tackles, which is the total of all successful tackles minus any unsuccessful tackles (thankfully players are not be awarded negative BPS points for this). The players with the highest number of tackles per game last season were
      PositionNameTeamPositionGamesAverage
      Tackles
      Per Game
      1Lucas LeivaLiverpoolDM(C)24(2)4.7
      2Morgan SchneiderlinSouthamptonDM(C)364.1
      3Pablo ZabaletaManchester CityD(LR)29(1)3.8
      4Steve SidwellFulhamM(C)24(4)3.8
      5Claudio YacobWest Bromwich Al…DM(C)29(1)3.6
      6Mark NobleWest HamDM(C)25(3)3.6
      7Mohamed DiaméWest HamDM(C)31(2)3.5
      8SandroTottenhamDM(C)223.3
      9ChicoSwanseaD(CR)263.3
      10Gaël ClichyManchester CityD(L)26(2)3.2
      11Geoff CameronStokeD(LR),DM(C)29(6)3.2
      12RamiresChelseaM(CLR)28(7)3.2
      13Mikel ArtetaArsenalDM(C),M(L)343.2
      14RafaelManchester UnitedD(R)27(1)3.1
      15Yohan CabayeNewcastle UnitedM(C)25(1)3.1
      16Craig GardnerSunderlandD(R),M(CR)32(1)3.1
      17Jan VertonghenTottenhamD(CL)343.1
      18Mikele LeigertwoodReadingDM(C)29(1)3
      19Carlos CuéllarSunderlandD(CR)262.9
      20Matthew LowtonAston VillaD(R),M(R)372.8

      You can see that there are very few players who average more than 3 tackles per game. The ones who do are mostly central defenders or deep playing mids. I think this is another opportunity for central defenders to earn bonus points.

  • Scoring the goal that wins a match
    • This is effectively the last goal scorer in any game that does not end in a draw and is almost impossible to predict.
  • Pass Completion (after making at least 30 passes) - 70% completion (1 point), 80% completion (2 points), 90% completion (3 points)
    • As pass is when ball is intentional played from one player to another. This includes,
      • Chipped pass – a lofted ball where there is a clear intended recipient
      • Headed pass – a header where there is a clear intended recipient
      • Launch – a long high ball into space or into an area for players to chase or challenge for the ball
      • Cross – a pass from a wide position into a specific area in front of the goal
      • Flick-on – a glancing pass with head or foot onto a team mate where the ball is helped on in the same general direction
      • Pull back – a pass inside the penalty area which is pulled back from the goal-line to the centre of the penalty area
      • Lay-off – a ball returned back to where it came from (usually by a forward) with one touch
      • Through Ball – a pass splitting the defence for a team-mate to run on to.
    • The variety of passes logged surprised me. Flick ons and other “sexy football” events only pay off half the time mean glamourous players are rewarded less than stable players. If you remember Jamie Redknap then you’ll know he only knew how to pass sideways and never did anything dangerous so probably had a pass completion rate of 99.99%. Yawn, lets reward the mundane players – lol. This table shows the average % completion rate for the top 40 players of last season
      RankNameTeamPositionGamesAverage
      Pass Completion
      Percentage
      1Ki Sung-YuengSwanseaDM(C)20(9)92.7
      2Jamie CarragherLiverpoolD(CR)16(8)92
      3Mikel ArtetaArsenalDM(C),M(L)3491.5
      4Per MertesackerArsenalD(C)33(1)91.5
      5Leon BrittonSwanseaDM(C)30(3)91.4
      6Mousa DembéléTottenhamM(CR),FW26(4)90.9
      7Samir NasriManchester CityAM(CLR)22(6)90.8
      8Martin SkrtelLiverpoolD(C)23(2)90.5
      9Giorgos KaragounisFulhamAM(C)20(5)90.3
      10Tom CleverleyManchester UnitedM(CLR)18(4)90.2
      11Steven TaylorNewcastle UnitedD(C)24(1)90.1
      12Shaun MaloneyWiganAM(CLR)34(2)89.9
      13Shinji KagawaManchester UnitedAM(CL)17(3)89.7
      14Joe AllenLiverpoolM(C)21(6)89.7
      15Rio FerdinandManchester UnitedD(C)26(2)89.6
      16Joleon LescottManchester CityD(C)17(9)89.6
      17Jonny EvansManchester UnitedD(C)21(2)89.3
      18ChicoSwanseaD(CR)2689.3
      19Vincent KompanyManchester CityD(C)2689.2
      20Javi GarcíaManchester CityDM(C)17(7)89.1
      21John Obi MikelChelseaDM(C)19(3)88.9
      22Yaya TouréManchester CityM(C)3288.9
      23James PerchNewcastle UnitedD(CR),DM(C)19(8)88.9
      24Jonathan De GuzmánSwanseaM(C)33(4)88.8
      25Ashley ColeChelseaD(L)3188.8
      26David VaughanSunderlandDM(C)6(18)88.7
      27Daniel AggerLiverpoolD(CL)3588.7
      28Fabricio ColocciniNewcastle UnitedD(C)2288.6
      29Gary CahillChelseaD(C)24(2)88.4
      30Aaron RamseyArsenalM(CR)21(15)88.2
      31Michael CarrickManchester UnitedD(C),DM(C)34(2)88.1
      32Fabian DelphAston VillaDM(C)19(5)87.8
      33Lucas LeivaLiverpoolDM(C)24(2)87.6
      34Claudio YacobWest Bromwich Al…DM(C)29(1)87.5
      35Sylvain MarveauxNewcastle UnitedAM(CLR)10(12)87.3
      36James McCarthyWiganM(CL)3887.3
      37Patrice EvraManchester UnitedD(L)3487.1
      38Jan VertonghenTottenhamD(CL)3487.1
      39Damien DuffFulhamAM(LR)27(4)86.9
      40Matija NastasicManchester CityD(C)2186.9

      This metric rewards the players in the middle of the pitch. Central defenders and central midfielders. 3 bonus points every match for central defenders who are excellent at distributing the ball from the back, players like the retired Carragher, like Mertesaker and Ferdinand. With 3 points for an assist and 3 points for a high pass rate, I think this is the reason that defenders are being rewarded over attacking midfielders (after all, how many crosses and corners fail to get past the first man!), and why Mertesaker had a higher BPS for last season than Baines.  There is always an exception to prove the rule, check out Nasri, Kagawa and De Guz right up there. We should assume that most players will earn one bonus point from pass completion rate, and central players earn 2 points. If the central player plays for a top 7 team then its likely they will earn 3 BPS points every game.

Players lose BPS points based on the following statistics (one point for each unless otherwise stated):

  • Conceding a penalty
    • Any infringement that is penalised by a referee and results in a penalty. We looked at penalties above and the average number of penalties per season was 92, or one penalty every 4.1 games. I have been unable to identify the players who conceded the most penalties last season. So I have this table for you instead. It shows the number of penalties faced by each team.
      Team# Penalties
      Aston Villa8
      Wigan Athletic7
      West Bromwich Albion6
      Fulham6
      Arsenal6
      Liverpool5
      Stoke City5
      Southampton5
      Norwich City5
      Swansea City5
      Newcastle United4
      Reading4
      Sunderland4
      Everton3
      Tottenham Hotspur3
      Manchester City2
      Queens Park Rangers2
      West Ham United2
      Chelsea1
      Manchester United0

      You can see Villa and Wigan faced the greatest number of penalties. My feeling from these stats is it is almost impossible to predict when this event will have an impact on a player’s BPS, so we should accept these as fluctuations of fate.

  • Missing a penalty (-2 points)
    • A penalty miss is even rarer than a penalty save, and we should ignore this metric when trying to identify players likely to earn high bonus points. For example, if Nolan missed two penalties in a row, would you sell him because he might miss a third and you miss out on 2 bonus points? No, I thought not.
  • For every 2 goals conceded by goalkeepers and defenders
    • The average number of goals per game is  2.46 goals per game. We should assume teams with a goals-per-game conceded ratio higher than 1.5 as players who will always have this BPS deducted.
  • Yellow cards
    • The following players received 7 or more yellow cards last season
      RankNameTeamPostitionGamesYellow
      Cards
      5Dean WhiteheadStokeDM(C),M(R)12(14)9
      6James CollinsWest HamD(C)299
      7James PerchNewcastle UnitedD(CR),DM(C)19(8)9
      8Leon OsmanEvertonM(CLR)369
      9Morgan SchneiderlinSouthamptonDM(C)369
      10Ryan ShawcrossStokeD(C)379
      11Stéphane MbiaQueens Park Ran…D(C),DM(C)299
      12Steven N’ZonziStokeDM(C)359
      13Billy JonesWest Bromwich Al…D(R)24(3)8
      14Clint HillQueens Park Ran…D(CL)318
      15David LuizChelseaD(C),DM(C)29(1)8
      16Gary CaldwellWiganD(C)258
      17Grant HoltNorwichFW28(6)8
      18Jonás GutiérrezNewcastle UnitedM(CLR)348
      19Marouane FellainiManchester UnitedM(C)318
      20RamiresChelseaM(CLR)28(7)8
      21Robert SnodgrassNorwichM(LR)35(2)8
      22Winston ReidWest HamD(C)368
      23Yohan CabayeNewcastle UnitedM(C)25(1)8
      24Angel RangelSwanseaD(R)30(3)7
      25Ashley WilliamsSwanseaD(C)377
      26Charlie AdamStokeDM(C)22(5)7
      27Cheik TiotéNewcastle UnitedDM(C)22(2)7
      28Christian BentekeAston VillaFW32(2)7
      29Claudio YacobWest Bromwich Al…DM(C)29(1)7
      30Esteban GraneroQueens Park Ran…M(CR)19(5)7
      31Fabian DelphAston VillaDM(C)19(5)7
      32Glen JohnsonLiverpoolD(LR)367
      33James McArthurWiganAM(C)24(10)7
      34James McCarthyWiganM(CL)387
      35Jan VertonghenTottenhamD(CL)347
      36Mark NobleWest HamDM(C)25(3)7
      37Pablo ZabaletaManchester CityD(LR)29(1)7
      38Steve SidwellFulhamM(C)24(4)7
      39Wayne RooneyManchester UnitedAM(CL),FW22(5)7

      We can see the majority of these players are central mids and defenders, and would seem to negate the 3 tackles BPS. Personally I feel we should ignore both this metric and the 3 tackles metric when trying to identify players likely to earn high bonus points as one offsets the other.

  • Red cards (-3 points)
    • There were only two players who were shown more than one red card last season. Sidwell and Pienaar both were given two reds. We should ignore this metric when tying to identify players likely to earn high BPS points, and put the reds down to karma.
  • Own goals (-2 points)
    • Own goals are reasonably rare. The players who scored 2 or more own goals last season were
      RankNameTeamPositionGamesNumber
      Of Own Goals
      1Jos HooiveldSouthamptonD(C)23(2)3
      2Gareth McAuleyWest Bromwich Al…D(C)362
      3Jonathan WaltersStokeAM(CLR),FW382
      4Jonny EvansManchester UnitedD(C)21(2)2
      5Leighton BainesEvertonD(L)382
      6Nathan BakerAston VillaD(CL)25(1)2

      Just keep this in mind if you choose one of these players.

  • Missing a big chance
  • Missing the target with 3 shots
    • I love these two measures. Players who shoot loads with no end product are penalised. Without looking at the stats my first thought was Torres! I was unable to find a table of missed big chances. Instead I have prepared a table of the number of shots vs the number of goals scored, which should give us an approximation of the wastefulness of some players. I have only included players who’s missed shots ratio is greater than 2.
      NameTeamPositionGamesShots – Goals
      Per Game
      Shots
      Per Game
      Goals
      Luis SuárezLiverpoolAM(CLR),FW3355.723
      Gareth BaleTottenhamD(L),M(CLR)334.36521
      Demba BaNewcastle UnitedAM(L),FW19(1)3.854.513
      Adel TaarabtQueens Park Ran…AM(CL)25(6)3.043.25
      Robin van PersieManchester UnitedFW35(3)3.023.726
      Andy CarrollWest HamFW22(2)3.013.37
      Jermain DefoeTottenhamFW27(7)2.883.211
      Olivier GiroudArsenalFW24(10)2.783.111
      Carlos TévezManchester CityAM(C),FW28(6)2.783.111
      Wayne RooneyManchester UnitedAM(CL),FW22(5)2.763.212
      Santiago CazorlaArsenalM(CLR)37(1)2.68312
      MichuSwanseaAM(C),FW352.593.118
      Marouane FellainiManchester UnitedM(C)312.552.911
      Christian BentekeAston VillaFW32(2)2.543.119
      Sergio AgüeroManchester CityAM(CL),FW22(8)2.52.912
      Edin DzekoManchester CityFW16(16)2.462.914
      Arouna KonéWiganAM(R),FW32(2)2.382.711
      Kevin MirallasEvertonAM(CLR)23(4)2.382.66
      Steven GerrardLiverpoolM(C)362.352.69
      Jay RodriguezSouthamptonAM(CL),FW24(11)2.332.56
      Romelu LukakuWest Bromwich Al…FW20(15)2.312.817
      Frank LampardChelseaM(C)21(8)2.282.815
      Victor AnichebeEvertonAM(R),FW19(7)2.272.56
      Theo WalcottArsenalAM(R),FW24(8)2.262.714
      Papiss Demba CisséNewcastle UnitedAM(R),FW35(1)2.182.48
      Clint DempseyTottenhamAM(CLR),FW22(7)2.162.47
      Rickie LambertSouthamptonFW35(3)2.112.515
      Nikica JelavicEvertonFW26(11)2.112.37
      Yohan CabayeNewcastle UnitedM(C)25(1)2.072.36
      Dimitar BerbatovFulhamAM(C),FW32(1)2.052.515
      Hugo RodallegaFulhamAM(L),FW14(15)22.13

      This list is the majority of the popular attacking players. There were a further 79 players who’s goals – shots was 1. I think if you have a big name attacking player you should assume they will be deducted three BPS every game, two for missing two big chances and one for missing the target more than three times. If you have a low-ownership attacking player you should assume they will be deducted 1 BPS every game, for missing either a big chance or wasting 3 shots . This is another reason why attacking players are being penalised over defensive players.

  • Making an error which leads to a goal
    • The ying and yang of the BPS. Every goal is rewarded, every mistake penalised. I have been unable to find stats on this measure. If you find any please let me know.
  • Every 2 errors leading to an attempt at goal
    • Again I have been unable to find stats on this measure. If you find any please let me know. However, I think it is safe to assume all central defenders and mids should be deducted a point for the combination of this measure and the “error leading to a goal” error unless there is an expectation of a clean sheet.
  • Being tackled 3 times
    • OPTA say a tackle is defined as where a player connects with the ball in ground challenge where he successfully takes the ball away from the man in possession. A Tackle Won is deemed to be where the tackler or one of his team-mates regains possession as a result of the challenge, or that the ball goes out of play and is “safe”. A Tackle Lost is where a tackle is made but the ball goes to an opposition player. We can only assume this means tackles lost, rather than just being tackled. The players who were dispossessed the most last season were
      RankNameTeamPositionGamesDispossessions
      Per Game
      1Charles N’ZogbiaAston VillaAM(CLR)11(10)2.9
      2Luis SuárezLiverpoolAM(CLR),FW332.8
      3Sergio AgüeroManchester CityAM(CL),FW22(8)2.8
      4Bryan RuizFulhamAM(CR)26(3)2.7
      5Raheem SterlingLiverpoolAM(LR)19(5)2.7
      6Arouna KonéWiganAM(R),FW32(2)2.6
      7Mohamed DiaméWest HamDM(C)31(2)2.5
      8Demba BaNewcastle UnitedAM(L),FW19(1)2.5
      9Youssuf MulumbuWest Bromwich Al…DM(C)282.5
      10Christian BentekeAston VillaFW32(2)2.4
      11Emmanuel AdebayorTottenhamFW18(7)2.4
      12Steven PienaarEvertonAM(CLR)352.4
      13Marouane FellainiManchester UnitedM(C)312.4
      14Wes HoolahanNorwichAM(C)28(5)2.3
      15Stéphane SessegnonSunderlandAM(CLR),FW34(1)2.3
      16Adam LallanaSouthamptonAM(CL)26(4)2.2
      17Dimitar BerbatovFulhamAM(C),FW32(1)2.2
      18Andy CarrollWest HamFW22(2)2.1
      19Esteban GraneroQueens Park Ran…M(CR)19(5)2
      20Robin van PersieManchester UnitedFW35(3)2

      A high number of attacking players on this list, and again another reason why attacking players lose out to defensive players. That said, looking at the average I think being tackled 3 times would be an unusual event and I think we can discount this measure when looking for players who will earn good bonus points.

  • Conceding 2 fouls
    • I was unable to find any stats on this measure, however, I think it ties in with the yellow card measure above. If you have a player who is likely to lose a point because of a yellow card, then they most certainly would have already lost a point from conceding two fouls. Avoid dirty players when targeting players for bonus points.
  • Being caught offside 3 times
    • A player is marked as being offside when the player is deemed to be in an offside position when a free kick is awarded. The players who earned the most offsides last season are
      RankNameTeamPositionGamesOff Sides
      Per Game
      1Christian BentekeAston VillaFW32(2)1.5
      2Grant HoltNorwichFW28(6)1.3
      3Papiss Demba CisséNewcastle UnitedAM(R),FW35(1)1.3
      4Nikica JelavicEvertonFW26(11)1.2
      5Robin van PersieManchester UnitedFW35(3)1.2
      6Romelu LukakuWest Bromwich Al…FW20(15)1.2
      7Luis SuárezLiverpoolAM(CLR),FW331.2
      8Dimitar BerbatovFulhamAM(C),FW32(1)1.1
      9Rickie LambertSouthamptonFW35(3)1
      10Javier HernándezManchester UnitedFW9(13)0.9
      11Bobby ZamoraQueens Park Ran…FW16(5)0.9
      12Emmanuel AdebayorTottenhamFW18(7)0.8
      13Pavel PogrebnyakReadingFW26(3)0.8
      14Theo WalcottArsenalAM(R),FW24(8)0.8
      15Fernando TorresChelseaFW28(8)0.8
      16Arouna KonéWiganAM(R),FW32(2)0.8
      17Jamie MackieQueens Park Ran…AM(R),FW17(12)0.8
      18Steven FletcherSunderlandAM(R),FW280.7
      19Shane LongWest Bromwich Al…FW25(9)0.6
      20MichuSwanseaAM(C),FW350.6

      Our favourite strikers :) The average per game is 1.5, so I don’t think we need to be overly concerned about this measure other than for Benteke.

How do I spot players likely to earn bonus points?

Now we have investigated each of the BPS events in depth, lets pull it all together by player position.

Forwards

Forwards will earn

  • Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.
  • Earn 8 points for each goal and we should expect one goal every 2 – 3 games depending on the player. RVP, Suarez, Benteke, Lukaku, Lambert, Dimi
  • Earn 3 points for an assist, once every 3 games. Rooney, Podolski, RVP
  • Providing key passes 1 – 2 per game.  1 extra if dead-ball specialist.
  • If you have a big name attacking player you should assume they will be deducted three BPS every game, two for missing two big chances and one for missing the target more than three times. If you have a low-ownership attacking player you should assume they will be deducted 1 BPS every game, for missing either a big chance or wasting 3 shots .
  • -1 for being caught offside if you are Benteke

We can expect a non-scoring forward will earn two PBS points per game. If they provide an assist they will get five BPS points and if they score they will get ten BPS points.

Wingers

Wingers earn

  • Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.
  • Earn 6 points for each goal and we should expect one goal every 4 – 5 games depending on the player. Walcott, Hazard, Walters,
  • Earn 3 points for an assist, once every 3-4 games. Hazard, Walcott, Maloney, Silva
  • Providing key passes 1 per game. 1 extra if dead-ball specialist.
  • -1 if you have Mirrallas or Walcott for missing either a big chance or wasting 3 shots

We can expect a non-scoring winger to earn three BPS points per game. Six if they provide an assist and nine if they score.

Attacking Central Mids

Attacking central players earn

  • Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.
  • Earn 6 points for each goal and we should expect one goal every 3-4 games depending on the player. Michu, Lamps, Cazorla, Mata, Fellaini, Nolan, Gerrard, Yaya
  • Earn 3 points for an assist, once every 3-4 games. Mata, Cazorla, Gerrard
  • Creating a big chance. Only Young, Silva, Nasri and Cazorla
  • Providing key passes 1 per game.  1 extra if dead-ball specialist.
  • Pass success percentage – central players earn 1 points. If the central player plays for a top 7 team then its likely they will earn 2 BPS points every game.
  • If you have a big name attacking player you should assume they will be deducted two BPS points every game, one for missing a chance and one for missing the target more than three times. If you have a low-ownership attacking player you should assume they will be deducted 1 BPS every game, for missing either a big chance or wasting 3 shots .

We can expect non-scoring free-kick taking attacking-central mids from top 7 teams to earn four BPS points, and ten points when they assist, thirteen points when they score. This is a key difference between central mids, forwards and wingers.

Defensive Central Mids

Defensive central mids earn

  • Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.
  • Earn 6 points for each goal and we should expect no more than 10 goals per season depending on the player. Gardner, Arteta
  • Earn 1 point for making 3 tackles – 1 point for yellow cards
  • Pass success percentage – central players earn 2 points. If the central player plays for a top 7 team then its likely they will earn 3 BPS points every game.

Five BPS points per game

Wingbacks

Wingback earn

  • Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.
  • Earn 4 points for each goal and we should expect no more than 3 goals per season (depending on the player). Baines, Evra, Rangel, and Rafael
  • We should expect 4 clean sheet bonus points once every 3 -4 games. Johnson, Enrique, Baines, Evra
  • Providing key passes: 2 for overlapping fullbacks. 3 if Baines
  • -1 for teams with a goals-per-game conceded ratio higher than 1.5 as players who will always have this BPS deducted.
  • -1 for errors leading to an attempt at goal unless you expect a clean sheet.

Four BPS points per game. It they keep a clean sheet then eight points, eleven if they provide an assist.

Center backs

Center backs earn

  • Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.
  • Earn 4 points for each goal and we should expect no more than 3 goals per season (depending on the player). Ivanovic, Vertonghen, Agger, McAuley, Mertesacker, Bassong, Turner and Evans
  • We should expect 4 clean sheet bonus points once every 3 -4 games. Agger, Mertesacker, Ivanovic, Jagielka, Vertonghen
  • For every 8 clearances, blocks and interceptions (total), most central defenders will pick up a point for this.
  • 3 bonus points every match for central defenders who are excellent at distributing the ball from the back, players like the retired Carragher, like Mertesaker and Ferdinand.
  • -1 for teams with a goals-per-game conceded ratio higher than 1.5 as players who will always have this BPS deducted.
  • -1 for errors leading to an attempt at goal unless you expect a clean sheet.

Six BPS per game. Ten if a clean sheet.

Goalkeepers

Goalkeepers earn

  • Earn a point for playing in the game and a point for playing over 60 minutes.
  • With the exception of Joe Hart, we should expect 4 clean sheet bonus points once every 3 -4 games. Hart, Cech, Bergvic, Jasskelainen and Mignolet
  • We should assume 1 point for 3 saves, except for Hart and Cech.
  • -1 for teams with a goals-per-game conceded ratio higher than 1.5 as players who will always have this BPS deducted.

Five bonus points per week. Nine if a clean sheet is kept.

A summary

We have focused on good players earning points. so to give you a profile for all players, we think the scoring profile will be

PositionDefault BPSTop BPSEventLikelyhood
of top BPS
Other
Goalkeeper510Clean SheetEvery 3-4 games
Centerbacks610Clean SheetEvery 3-4 games
Wingbacks48Clean Sheet3 times per season+ 4 BPS for a goal
Defensive Central Mids5
Attacking Central Mids410AssistEvery 3-4 games+ 3 BPS for a goal
Wingers36AssistEvery 4 – 5 games+ 3 BPS for a goal
Forwards210GoalEvery 2 – 3 games+ 3 BPS for an assist

and the event profile for each type of player will be

ClearnancesPass
Success
Passes
Per game
Key Passes
Per Game
Offsides
Given
GoalsAssists
Forward0.6770.2915.470.60.330.450.05
Mid1.5379.6632.460.740.030.160.14
Centre back7.2184.2243.130.240.080.070.02
Defensive mid1.9483.6338.280.440.010.030.03
Wing back3.174.7235.510.650.030.090.16
Goalkeeper0.851.9318.090.03000
Wing0.8281.3920.91.060.410.030.2
Attacking Mid1.1479.0928.921.180.310.40.21
Defender5.1180.8629.590.250.020.050.1

We will plug these figures into our stats next week to give you a PBS rating of “Good”, “OK”, and “Poor” for each player.

Goals and Clean Sheets for this season

A lot of managers have felt we have had fewer goals and more clean sheets than a “normal season”. Does this stand up to scrutiny? In the first 3 game weeks of the 2012-13 season we were treated to 25 clean sheets in 30 games, 33 home goals and 25 away goals. This table shows how that compares to previous seasons.

YearClean
Sheets
Home
Goals
Away
Goals
Total
Goals
2007-0813373067
2008-0916443579
2009-1018273966
2010-1120553186
2011-1224413273
2012-1317523688
2013-1425332558

So focusing on clean sheets, the average number of clean sheets in the first 3 weeks of the season is 19, the average number of home goals is 41.2 and the average number of away goals is 32.6. This season we have 6 more clean sheets than average. 6 is perhaps unusual, but not extraordinary.  What has stood out to me is that this season is the total number of goals is a lot lower than in previous seasons. Pre-season we expected a lot of goals in the opening three weeks and this has not happened. We have not seen crazy results like

      • Manchester United 8 – 2 Arsenal
      • Newcastle United 6 – 0 Aston Villa
      • Wigan Athletic 0 – 6 Chelsea
      • Everton 1 – 6 Arsenal

Perhaps a low number of goals at the start of the season means a low number of goals at the end of the season? This table shows us the total goals scored for each season

SeasonNumber
Of Goals
Average
Goals Per Game
2007-089052.38
2008-098312.19
2009-109332.46
2010-119462.49
2011-129512.50
2012-139532.51

For the last four years we have been given over 930 goals per season, or 2.46 goals per game. We can see in 2009-10 and 2007-08 there were under 70 goals at the start of the season but over 900 by the end of the season. Therefore, I think the number of goals scored in the first 3 weeks of this season has been unusually low but I don’t this this trend will last and we should expect the goals to come soon. The lack of goals has an impact on the distribution of bonus points, and to do a fair analysis on the distribution of bonus points we need to know who is not giving us our goals and if these goals (if scored) would have made a difference. This table shows us the positions of the players who scored in the first 3 weeks of previous seasons.

YearForwardsMidsDefenders
2007-08312511
2008-09433511
2009-1035229
2010-11413411
2011-1243219
2012-13423511
2013-14301810

We can see the number of goals scored by forwards and mids is both down in 2013, where as the number of goals scored by defenders is reasonably consistent. If we look at the goals scored in the first 3 weeks by position as a percentage

YearForwardsMidsDefenders
2007-0846.3%37.3%20%
2008-0956.6%46.1%10%
2009-1053%33.3%10%
2010-1148.8%40.5%10%
2011-1259.7%29.2%10%
2012-1347.7%39.8%10%
2013-1451.7%31%20%

The average is 52% of the goals in the first 3 weeks come from forwards, 37% from midfielders and 14% from defenders (including own goals). My view of this season is that the forwards are not scoring at home as usual (for the start of the season), and the mids are just not scoring as usual. Is the first 3 weeks of the season a good indicator of the rest of the season? Looking at who scored the goals

YearForwardsMidsDefendersGoalkeepers
2007-08475334960
2008-094382851080
2009-104893201240
2010-114613591260
2011-125183271051
2012-134563691100

or as a percentage

YearForwardsMidsDefendersGoalkeepers
200752.536.910.60
200852.734.3130
200952.434.313.30
201048.737.913.30
201154.534.4110.1
201248.839.511.80

The average goals by position is 51.6% forwards, 36.2% mids and 12.2% defenders, and in a normal season we would have seen an extra 10 goals for forwards and another 7 goals for mids. I think we can safely say that forwards and attacking central mifielders have not earned the bonus points we would expect, where as wingers are unlikely to have earned bonus points regardless of if they had provided an assist.

What’s the implication for our teams?

I think wingers will turn out to be over valued unless the team is playing three up front or with very forward wingers, like Villa, Southampton or Liverpool. I feel overlaping fullbacks like Rafael will be seen as over valued and I expect value to be found in central defenders and attacking  central midfielders. However, I do not see enough evidence for a move away from 3-4-3, although we see 4-3-3 as being strong in the current climate of clean sheets.

What other sites have said…

Fantasy Football Geek - Goal scorers will continue to be rewarded. Assisters are far less likely to get the bonus points. Goal scoring midfielders such as Walcott Michu and Lampard will continue to be rewarded. Assist based midfielders like Jarvis Downing and Lennon will be disadvantaged. Clean sheets are good for defenders making them worth investing in. All Things FPL - Defenders are the biggest winners, Strikers and attacking winger lose out. The new bonus system is best suited for players that play for clubs who like to play possession football. The likes of Arsenal, Swansea, Southampton and Liverpool tend to do well. Total FPL - Goals are definitely the main factor contributing to bonus points. Scoring 1 goal will yield on average 1.77 bonus points. Centre-backs do have a better chance of getting bonus points, on average they have an 0.45 higher return from bonus points over their defensive colleagues when earning a clean sheet What do you think? Know of a good player who should earn a lot of BPS points? Get involved below.

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ChorleyRocks

First used stats to try to win his work mini-league. Now helps other managers win theirs. Tell me your team and I'll take a look.
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217 thoughts on “Strategies for the Fantasy Football Bonus Point System

  1. Great article Chorley. Considering the BPS strategy, I need to replace Ramage from my squad. Any ideas on a decent defender below 6.0m with a good run of fixtures and some attacking potential? I already have Shaw, Zabaleta and Coleman.

    • Krafty,

      how about one of these

      NameTeamPositionPricePointsMinsPPGPPMPPMPGBonus
      Point
      Rank
      TimePointsGame
      Difficulty
      AggerLIVDEF624270841.33GreatGreatGoodGood
      ToureLIVDEF5131806.52.61.3OKGreatOKGood
      TerryCHEDEF618270631GreatGreatOKGood
      CahillCHEDEF618270631OKGreatOKGood
      DawsonTOTDEF515270531OKGreatOKGood
      WalkerTOTDEF6172705.672.830.94GreatGreatOKGood
      RietherFULDEF5132524.332.60.87PoorGreatOKGood
      HughesFULDEF4.5112703.672.440.81OKGreatOKGood
      HangelandFULDEF51227042.40.8PoorGreatOKGood
  2. Hey guys… has anyone seen Sakho play?
    Can’t find all too much about him online, but Rogers considers him a Marque and seems like a cheap way into the Pool defense for a good run of fixtures… at Center Back he also seems likely to score some bonus points if Pool keep some clean sheets… BUT… I can’t specifically remember seeing him play and what his style is…

    • oh… and who are the top punts for goal scoring mids?
      Is it just me, or have these seemingly dried up?
      Mata not playing, Michu stuck behind some true central attackers…
      At the start of the season (excluding the above) I thought they would be Walcott, Coutinho, Mirallas, Gerrard, Hazard, Lampard and to a lesser extent.. Caz, Silva and Paulinho / Chadli….
      Are these still the same, or has this list changed?

      • Lamela? Very interested to see how he gets on – good scoring record and has played a lot of his football up front. Can see him scoring – if he scores early I’ll be bringing him as my Spurs coverage to replace Soldado

        Recent transfers look to have helped Mirallas and Coutinho who both may start to see more time in the AMC position rather than on the wings.

        • aah, yeah… hadn’t considered him… should prove to be an interesting option and should start to link up with Saldado far more as soon as he starts getting regular gametime.
          After doing the analysis for this article and seeing how few goals had been scored… I decided to look closer at the players themselves… realised we’ve really been starved of quality mids / mid-forward attacking partnerships…
          Coutinho out wide and little real creativity of Gerrard in the middle has limited both’s chances of scoring
          Mirralas had a similar issue with Fellaini taking the middle and no real attacking power in the front to link up with..
          Walcott’s just been unlucky
          Hazard can’t really get hold of anything as long as Oscar is scatter gunning it at goal every chance he gets from miles out (that kid really needs to learn that it’s a team sport, regardless of how much talent he has)
          United… well, they don’t really have any creativity or scorers at all… hopefully Moyes can get Fellaini working his magic again
          City… don’t really know what their problem is, but not crazy about any of their midfield options
          And, just like that… virtually no real options from the top teams in the opening week….
          Hopefully now with all the transfers Mirallas, Walcott / Ozil, Coutinho and Lamela will come good.

        • Tough this season to try and get it right

          Think I’m getting towards finalising a WC team

          mingo (mcgreg)
          Mert, Ivan, Dawson, Agger (Collins)
          Walcot, Lamps, Lamela (Brady, JWP)
          Giroud, Benteke, Sturridge

          risks –
          Weak(ish) mid to compensate for strong defence – I may be wrong but have a strong hunch about this.
          Ivan – tough run coming up considering swap for Evra or Vidic until Chels fixtures ease up
          Dawson playing time – willing to risk it as he’s such good value at £5m and has played 90 in every game so far
          Lamela – playing time and impact – can he translate Serie A form to prem?
          Sturridge – injury?
          RVP – dont have him. Am never going to feel comfortable about that

        • It’s a good looking team… as far as bang for buck goes, it’s definitely on target… the defenders definitely provide a better points for price opportunity and I like the options you’ve gone with.
          The only thing I’ve yet to see fully though is where those bonus point go when we have both a clean sheet as well as a goal… does the goal scorer and assisting player get the points or are they distributed?

          Anyway.. my team is looking similar.. trying to give myself a little more room to balance between GWs though… something like:

          Mig (Daniels)
          Sakho, Mert, Baines / Ivan / Evans, Whitaker, Chester
          Lamps, Mirallas, Fellaini / Nolan, Wallcott / Ozil, JWP
          Giroud, Benteke, Sturridge

          Obviously a couple variations in that… but not going to decide exactly till Friday night… still hoping this transfer window comes alive and I get a few more price increases…

  3. With Johnson being out for 10 weeks, is this the time to take a cheeky attempt at Wisdom? Can’t really see any other right back being ready in the squad atm, as Kelly is still getting back to form.
    The only backdraw could be Liverpool switching to a back 3 to accomodate Sakho, but I doubt this will happen in the next few weeks anyway.

    • DaBonks… really can’t say… with Cissokho and Sakho coming in, it’s tough to predict how they are going to line up.
      Rogers has been on a bit of a drive to establish some real goal scoring options up front without a reliance on Suarez while at the same time setting up a really solid defense.
      He has also been on record saying that he considers Sakho a Marque signing, so we can definitely expect some good gametime out of him… as to how they line up…. and whether they will switch to a back 3… that’s anyone’s guess at this point, however I can’t see him changing it up too much as the current set up has been working well….
      Personally I see the same set-up with Sakho replacing Toure / Skrtel and Wisdom possibly replacing Johnson, yes

      • It’s either a straight swap of Cuellar for Wisdom for me, or Downing for Brady and Cuellar for Enrique with the 4 point hit. What would you recommend?

        • DaBonks… personally I’d recommend Enrique if you can, Liverpool have a great run of fixtures and Cissokho was bought in almost exclusively to put more pressure on Enrique to perform… which tells me he will be doing his damnedest to put in some good performances…. But I am one of those that believe we should be spending a bit more on our defense due to the new BPS… so it really does rely on that

        • Just found out I have too many Southampton player, so can’t get Ward-Prowse either.
          That means, to get Enrique, I will have to drop either Michu, Coutinho or Hazard.

  4. I’m really rueing doing early transfers now, why don’t I listen to the established wisdom! Two transfers already done this week, cech > mignolet and Dzeko > Giroud, both reasonable at the time, but as you can see from below I now have Hazard and Silva injured and Ramage is off to Barnsley:

    Mignolet (Boruc)
    Zabaleta, Mertesacker, Shaw, (Turner, Ramage)
    Hazard, Walcott, Nolan, Silva (Diame)
    Benteke, Lambert, Giroud

    So my question is this, do I just tread water and sub Diame and Turner in for Hazard and Silva and get them both out next week for a 4 point hit? I know a WC is an option but I’d like to try and save it for money making in the next long gameweek gap of 7-8. What do you all think?

    • It’s still early in the week, they might return yet. Be patient, otherwise you have the subs to fill their shoes.

    • Hi SecondSon,

      they are marked as 75% fit, so they could be OK. We often hear of injuries to players on double-game international-breaks, so Its probably worth riding this one out as it could be just “smoke and mirrors”.

  5. So I played my wildcard at the end of last gameweek and have been building value since then, but now it’s time to decide on the team I wish to play with starting Saturday. Taking in the new BPS allocation, United’s, Arsenal’s and Liverpool’s upcoming good run of fixtures, and form, I’ve come up with this:

    Mignolet

    Mertesacker – Walker – Vidic (Coleman, Chester)

    Walcott – Ben Arfa – Hernandez – JWP (Barkley)

    RVP (c) – Sturridge – Giroud (vc)

    In the bank: 0.5m

    3 fairly expensive defenders means I can switch Walker/ Vidic for someone solid from Chelsea/ Liverpool/ City if I’m unhappy with their performances. I have my eye on Cahill but opted for Walker and Vidic due to their easier fixtures.

    The midfield is obviously where I miss out somewhat. Walcott I think could get some goals and BPS this season and he’s been unlucky so far and I’m set on keeping him. Also going to keep Barkley/ JWP for value reasons. Ben Arfa hogs the ball a lot but if Newcastle do anything it will come through him. The only downside to having him is he plays 3 away fixtures in the next 4 and I’m not totally sold on Newcastle’s attacking threat. I do have £0.5m in the bank and I am debating using that money to upgrade him to Nani/ Mirallas/ Nolan but again I’m not particularly sold on any of those 3 at the moment. Hernandez is good value and I’m happy to keep him at the moment now Swansea’s fixtures are easing up a little.

    Up front is where I’m very happy and where I hope the majority of my points will come. Serious investment for serious reward (hopefully). I figured that if I were to ever get RVP in then it would have to be now, and with him playing Palace next and then easier fixtures after GW6, I can’t really resist. I fancy him to knock in a few goals soon and he’s likely to score a few braces which should see him collect all 3 bonus points. Sturridge and Giroud are also the in-form players at the moment so happy to keep those, especially with their fixtures.

    Thoughts? Too top heavy? Midfield’s too weak? Too much money in the defence?

    • Hi SBL,

      you have a few more days yet. Wait till after the international break so make sure you know who is injured. Also, most Managers do their transfers on a Friday afternoon at work, so by hanging on till Saturday morning you will make the most out of any player price rises.

      That said, there is no harm in talking about your team.

      Nani could be a good shout, Nolan is the better call. I’d avoid Mirallas for now as Everton’s fixtures are not great.

      All in all I like your team but I would encourage you to think about subs that rotate/alternate.

      • Cheers CR. I am definitely going to wait until Saturday morning to make my changes but I’m trying to nail down the team I want as I’m working this Saturday and will need to make the changes quickly before I head out in the morning. Taking your rotation advice into consideration something like this could work (based on West Ham and Fulham rotating for a bit and Everton and Southampton):

        Mignolet (Boruc)

        Mertesacker – Hughes – Lovren (Collins, Coleman)

        Walcott – Lamela/Hazard/Silva (1 of the 3) – Hernandez – JWP (Barkley)

        RVP (c) – Sturridge – Giroud (vc)

        A bit more balance and investment in the midfield at the detriment of my defence. I’d be looking to throw in a Stoke defender at some point too for rotation purposes after the next couple of gameweeks.

  6. Chipper are you from SA mate?

    What are the thoughts on captaining a defender? I was inches away from making Zab my captain last GW and went for Dzeko instead which was a massive error.

    Great article, I landed up swapping Navas for Sessegnon, big punt

    • Hey CR..outside of Arsenal in 3 weeks their fixtures look alright to me, teams tend to change after post international break so its difficult to predict but United have got city next week and Swansea have some tough fixtures so West Brom looked like they are going to have winnable games for the next 2 GW’s..I plan to move to 4-3-3 after this GW so Sessegnon will be rotated in and out of my squad.

      He is also part of my plan to bring Suarez in when he’s available

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