Home vs away player performance

Home vs away player performance

It is a commonly held myth that players earn more points when playing at home than when playing away. Is this true?

We have pleasure in presenting excellent analysis by Daire which shows the points earned by each player at home compared to when away, and also each player’s points per game at home compared to away.

Points earned at home compared to away

The below chart shows the number of Fantasy Premier League points each player earned at home compared to away last season. The closer a player is to the top right corner, the more points they score. To make the chart easy to read, Daire has added a simple trend line, so you know the “average” for most players.

A player high up the chart but on the left is a player who performs well away from home but not so well at home. A good example is Henderson, who earned 65 points away from home and only 35 points at home. This discrepancy could be for a number of reasons, but it is interesting when thinking about players who perhaps face three away games on the bounce.

Bale scored 150 points away from home and 100 points at home. Surprisingly, RVP, Mata, Cazorla, Suarez and Lambert all earn more points away from home than at home. Perhaps the pressure of the home crown adversely affects the performance of some players? This suggests these players are better choices for your Fantasy Football captain’s armband when playing away from home!

Home vs Away 2Tevez is the opposite, with 105 home points and only 64 away points. Same for Podolski, so a lack of game time might have lead to this discrepancy, or perhaps a preference for the manager to play the “star” at home – in the case of Hazard and Walcott.

I also noticed most of the defenders are to the right of the line, suggesting they earn more points at home – as you would perhaps expect. Yet there are a few notable exceptions. Mertesacker, Koscielny, Terry to name a few.

A great chart and a good launchpad for questions when thinking about players for your team next year.

Points Per Game at home compared to away

The below chart shows the number of Fantasy Premier League points-per-game each player earned at home compared to away last season. The closer a player is to the top right corner, the more points-per-game they obtain. Equally, a player high up the chart but on the left is a player who earns lots of Fantasy Football points away from home but not so many at home.

To make the chart easy to read, Daire has added a simple trend line, so you know the “average” for most players.

There are some players high up the chart who suffered from low game time, for example, Terry, Coutinho and Buttner. Ignoring these, the players in the top right corner are this seasons star players who all returned the points to your fantasy football teams – Bale, RVP, Suarez, Cazorla. There are also a few surprises with Rooney (so he did OK when he played), Dimi, and Ruiz. I had expected the Villa forwards to be higher, but then they only turned it on in the second half of the season.

player analysisIt is interesting more players are on the right of this line, suggesting more points are earned away from home! I am not sure why this might be and I think some further analysis of these numbers would be worthwhile [any takers?] I was also surprised how few players average over 3.5 points per game both at home and away.

One final observation, I think this chart also gives a good indication of player prices. For example, making a line from top right to bottom left and following this down we can see Mata and Walcott are likely to be priced the same, as will Hazzard, Michu and Cazorla. Could Bale cost more that RVp next season?

I’m impressed with Daire’s contribution – thank you. It is a great tool and a natural next step would be to look at playing time at home vs away, as graphs of points and playing time would be powerful visualisations.

42 thoughts on “Home vs away player performance

  1. That’s really cool, even I can understand the stuff when it’s so user friendly. Who’s Daire, sign him/her/it up, pronto.

  2. Last season I was discovering that Bale was scoring more consistently away from home rather than at home so I figured more players could have similar trends to this which could aid how we play FPL.

    • Its a great set of charts, well done IIDcRVP. Just looking at the first chart, picking players above 80 points (in either direction) shows some great buys for the price.

      • It also tells you players not to go for e.g Giroud is terrible away from home.

        • I was also surprised how one sided Nolan’s contribution was. He only seems to do the business at home. I’ve not checked if West Ham had a lot of away games while Nolan was injured, but on the face of it he is a player who could be picked as a rotating 4th mid. with another “good at home” player.

        • Funny you should say that, I read a research paper yesterday that looked at the home advantage, and whether it effected domestic & foreign players the same.

          The study found that foreign players perform similar home & away, where as domestic players see a decrease in performance when playing away from home.

          Nolan’s stats seem to back that up from your account CR?

        • On the face of it these stats back that up. I’ll check when I’ve got the kids in bed.

        • Hi Bowie,

          I looked at the stats, but it is hard to draw a similar conclusion from the graphs as they are. I guess if it were true then the mean distance (as calculated by pythag.) from the 1:1 midpoint line would be less for non-home-nation players than home-players. I’ll see if I can find a simple way of filtering the charts by home-nation vs non-home-nation over the week, and I’ll do something more in-depth further down the line.

        • Ill see if I can get the dissertation, to have a look at what data they used. They would have likely looked at pass accuracy, tackle success etc, where that doesn’t really effect our score, it may increase the likelihood of points, but is not indicative of a high points tally

        • The article reported that home advantage effected home nation players, to the point of a detrimental effect in the away performance. Non-domestic players didn’t see as big of a drop, to the point where there was little or no significant drop in performance.

          I think to find whether this is true in our case we would have to look at the difference between players PPG average for home matches & away matches.

          The closer this score is to 0, the more even the performance across home & away.

        • I think subtracting the away score from the home score is an easier calculation that using pythagorus to calculate the distance from the 1:1 line. I’ll see what I can find out.

    • Cheers for the stats Daire/RVP, absolutely brilliant.

      I’m telling you now, most of the analysis reports on here would quite easily gain honours at degree level.

      I read 27 review of dissertation articles yesterday, and one like this would excel in that group.

    • “The Club can announce that Managing Director, Derek Llambias, has resigned from his position with immediate effect.”
      Loony Toons or what? The Nukies have (or maybe I should say had) 50,000 in St. James’ Park for most home games last season, the fans really deserve better than this circus. And Llambias did a decent job of getting NUFC out of the red too. How will they replace him now? Maybe Kinnear’s missus will do the books now.

      • Because of the timing I guess it is easy to link this to Kinnear coming back. Llambias has done well at Newcastle. I can’t see him being out of work for long.

      • It’s embarrassing the way Newcastle are run, yes financially we dont do anything stupid now but i’m sure Ashley must go out of his way to come up with ideas to wind the fans up.
        I was hoping Chorley would find some stats somewhere to show that Kinnear is actually the tactical mastermind that he claims to be, but i’ll not hold my breath. He’s already been talking utter b*****ks again, claiming he signed players who were already there when he first arrived, not being able to pronounce any of the team including calling Cabaye ‘Yohan Kebab’, claiming Shola is a young talent, insulting the fans already. all of that within two or three days!

        at least our fixtures look alright for the first half of the season, where as it looks like sunderland could be in for a rough ride, better hope all these new defenders are up to the challenge!

        • yeah, but losing a decent CEO to get rid of the manager isn’t progress. Joke in (my f-ing) Ear, is surely the most bizarre appointment going?

        • I don’t get it either. I can’t see how it can be in the long term interests of the shareholders nor the short term interests of the fans.

        • Apparently Graham Carr is next to go, it seems to be in reaction to Kinnear pulling the plug on the Douglas move because he has no idea who he was! a young Brazilian Champions league defender on a free and he pulls the plug! its a complete joke.

          I completely agree with SZ, its sure to end it tears. I cant really see why players would want to join when things are so unstable, or why our better players would want to stay.

          all just part of the perpetual rollercoaster of being a football fan i guess. (unless you’re a Man U fan, in which case there are certainly more peaks than troughs to enjoy!)

        • This article is an interesting Mike Ashley viewpoint, all be it out of date.

          I agree that I don’t “get” bringing in Kinnear unless:
          1) Ashley does not fully trust Pardew in the transfer market and want’s a second opinion – in which case why not just set up a Transfers Committe like in other clubs and make Kinnear a non-exec Director
          2) Ashley feels he made a mistake giving Pards a 7 year deal and is trying to push Pards out of the the club – in which case he has to be careful as he might get done for constructive dismissal (although that might be cheaper than a sacking-payout)
          3) a bit of both
          4) some master plan we don’t yet know about

          I don’t think Ashley is a “bad-un” out to fleece the club for as much money as possible. But I do suspect he has taken a wrong turn with this appointment, and the resignation of senior management indicates they have previously advised Ashley against this appointment.

        • I hope its option 4. To be fair when Pardew was appointed there was something like 98% against him and that ended up working out better than we thought. Perhaps this will, we’ll all forget how angry we are, start to trust Ashley again then he’ll change our home shirt to red and white or something

        • I take no pleasure at all in seeing a club go down the pan; Pompey, Leeds, Rangers, Hearts; I’m not joking when I say I empathise with those fans. There are (were?) 50 thousand toonies at every home game, I feel for each & every one of them. I thought Pards/Carr would get the ship back on an even keel, but Joke In Ear? Wonga as sponsors? Feck it, now I hope they go down, it’s the only way Ashley will learn imo. My apologies to the nukie faithful, but this HAS to get worse, before it gets better, just my 2 cents…….

        • You never know SZ, Kin-dew might get together and say “we are where we are, lets stick together and make this work.”

        • McFunk, SZ,

          here is an interesting take on it from the Independent, blaming Pardew and Llambias for forcing him to spend £40m in January.

        • That actually makes sense, we can see why Ashley’s miffed, he’s waited until the end of the season to act. But Kinnear’s not the answer, and if Carr goes……..

      • Haha it will be difficult early on for David Moyes. Chelsea’s double gameweek will most likely be against Hull at home and Aston Villa at home on the first gameweek if they do the same as last season.

        • Chelsea P-P Aston Villa (due to UEFA Super Cup) so alternatively could be the same week as Everton v Chelsea

  3. Top stuff Daire and CR, really enjoyed that analysis. I think the “home” effect applies more to team performance and wins than it does to individual player performances. Your analysis proves that and is definitely something to consider when choosing captains for next year!

    However, I am slightly confused. When you say a player to the left scores more points away than at home, do you mean to the left of the trend line or the left of the graph/table as a whole? Because RVP, Mata, Bale etc. all technically appear to the top right of the graph, if I’m not mistaken?

Comments are closed.