Fantasy Football Stats

Goals vs attacks last season

I am a big fan of Stratabet. They are good friends of the site and I find really interesting data that helps in FPL. I was just looking around their charting tool when I found this beautiful chart. It shows the number of attacks made all last season, compared to the number of goals scored.

We should expect to see Chelsea and Liverpool right up there, but look at Spurs who outscored everyone with fewer attacks. Also see Crystal Palace in the “top tier”, on 2590 attacks – just 8 behind Manchester United but a huge 126 ahead of Swansea. Yet for all their attacking vigour, there was not a lot of “result” when we look at goals scored.

Goal economy.

Team Goals Attacks Attack to goal ratio
Tottenham Hotspur 86 2688 31.3
Chelsea 85 2808 33
Manchester City 80 2649 33.1
Arsenal 77 2736 35.5
Liverpool 78 2777 35.6
AFC Bournemouth 55 2256 41
Everton 62 2719 43.9
Leicester City 48 2264 47.2
Manchester United 54 2598 48.1
West Ham United 47 2292 48.8
West Bromwich Albion 43 2136 49.7
Stoke City 41 2068 50.4
Crystal Palace 50 2590 51.8
Swansea City 45 2364 52.5
Southampton 41 2199 53.6
Watford 40 2291 57.3
Burnley 39 2241 57.5
Hull City 37 2291 61.9
Sunderland 29 2027 69.9
Middlesbrough 27 2042 75.6

My gut instinct tells me the higher the attack to goal ratio, the more economical the team must be. On this measure, the top teams are Tottenham Hotspur, Chelsea, Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool and AFC Bournemouth. We all know United were wasteful, so lets look elsewhere for insight.

Perhaps the Aguero / Sanchez swap that is in the media at the moment is worth a look.

Last season Aguero scored one goal every 93 attacks (on a pro-rata basis). If he goes to Arsenal we can say he probably won’t create additional attacks compared to Sanchez, but because Kun’s goals per attack ratio is lower (than Alexis’), I think Aguero could get fractionally more goals than now. Indeed, if we look back to 2015/16 season where he scored 4 more goals on fewer attacks, his goals per attack ratio was astonishingly 69, suggesting he could really make a difference to Arsenal.

Looking at Sanchez, this season he has scored one goal every 107 attacks. This is an improvement from the 15/16 season where he scored once every 144 attacks. We could argue the improvement this season was due to playing as a striker. So will he play as a striker at City, and if not, will he improve the team? The media suggests Pep admires Sanchez for his defensive duties. So I doubt he will be used as a center forward, but I think he will be used in a up-field press.

It feels like Arsenal will get the better deal should this move go through. By way of comparison, Giroud scores once every 80 attacks.

Lukaku scored once every 103 attacks (pro-rata) last season, suggesting the move to Chelsea will probably bring him an extra goal next year.

There are three budget players who also stand out. King, Llorente and Son, who all are between 111 attacks per goal and 115 attacks per goal (pro-rata). Interestingly, the BBC reports they all have similar “shots on target” ratios too.

  • King’s first two games are West Brom (A) and Watford (H), and the addition of Ake to the Bournemouth front line suggests we should take a good look at them both some August.
  • Swansea’s opening games are bobbins so lets look at Llorente later in the year.
  • If only Son’s game time was better!

For the same of completeness, here are last season’s stats for the newly promoted teams.

Team Goals Attacks Attack to goal ratio
Newcastle United 85 2804 33
Brighton & Hove Albion 74 2888 39
Huddersfield Town 65 2921 44.9

Tell me what you see in the data. There must be a correlation between assists and attacks, and bonus points and attacks. Any budding stats guys out there who want to do the leg work?

(The data in this article was taken with permission from StrataBet Sports Trading Platform. Thank you.)

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ChorleyRocks

Site founder, first used stats to try to win his work mini-league. Now helps other managers win theirs.

432 thoughts on “Goals vs attacks last season

  1. Can we have a new thread please, there is news on the FPL game!

    ‘Free Hit’ arrives to shake up Fantasy!
    Fantasy Premier League returns this week with a new chip that will transform managers’ season strategies.
    The “Free Hit” chip replaces last season’s “All Out Attack” chip to sit alongside the Wildcard, the Triple Captain and Bench Boost.
    A Free Hit can be taken once per season and allows for unlimited transfers in a single Gameweek.
    How it works for one Gameweek only
    Managers can replace their entire squad for that Gameweek but their 15-man squad of the Gameweek before returns for the next deadline.
    For example, if the Free Hit chip is played leading up to Gameweek 2, once the deadline has passed, you will see the points scored by your new squad via the points tab.
    Your previous squad will now return and is accessible on the transfers tab.

    Also Find out the 10 players who have had their positions changed in FPL for 2017/18, and what it means for managers!

    James Milner’s Fantasy Premier League prospects have been transformed for the new season.
    After playing last season as Liverpool’s left-back, he has been reclassified from a midfielder to a defender for 2017/18.
    This could have a major impact on his potential.

    • @Terminators Probably no new thread until a new topic/article from the writers.

      I like the new chip! It’ll be useful for that week when they decide to postpone half of the matches…if that happens again.

      And Milner at LB will be good: he’s on penalties, potential CS points etc.

      Still no game launch… :whistle:

        • @SecretZorro

          We could speculate on what is known so far, also chat about transfers etc, it will keep people coming here and posting while the game is off, better in a new thread so people can see and know where to go instead of tacking onto another thread.

          There is a page with a table of other players that have hade their positions changed.

        • @Kralin Hello friend :) Nice to see your posts appearing again after the summer break (I assume you’re not an MLS man!). I do enjoy your well-written and erudite comments.

          Just had to look up the word sempiternal as I’ve never come across it before. Nice. Thanks for increasing my word repertoire :tiphat:

        • @Chipster Evening. That’s very kind.

          Yes, MLS has passed me by. One fantasy league is more than enough for me though I gather MLS has its loopy charms.

          Hopefully the curtain will go up on the main league tomorrow. I wonder who’ll get the first team up to rate. We’ll probably have a template of sorts before the weekend, though there may be a clear divide between people who go Pogba/Lukaku and those who don’t.

        • @Kralin I am a first time MLS-er this season and am thoroughly enjoying it (“loopy charms” sums it up perfectly!)

          Hoping I can successfully juggle both once FPL kicks off again.

          Yes tomorrow, fingers crossed. I am getting a bit impatient now. I need to know all the player prices so I can reality check the dream team I’m building in my head :lol:

    • @Terminators I was hoping Milner would be reclassified.

      I like the new chip as well, far more useful than AOA. A real godsend in the BGW, maybe tactically at other times as well (sudden convergence of in-form players with excellent fixtures).

  2. Shame Alves is going to PSG. I’ve always liked the cut of his jib and he could have been handy for some points. Not that he’d have played every week I suppose, so maybe a blessing in disguise.

    (Please excuse mindless witterings while we wait for the site to launch.)

    • @Kralin – Just hearing Alves’ name still makes me so angry. Grrrr…can’t believe Barca sold him. So unbelievably stupid.
      Sorry…ignore my rant.

    • @Zwischenzug Speedy posting of the first draft there. I would start waffling about it (though I nearly had an aneurysm when I saw you had Gabs) but probably best you (or Secret Zorro, if you’re listening) repost /move the comment on to the new thread.

    • @bees393 Not sure to be honest. Perez may be a safer bet. Gayle looks like their main forward. You’re thinking 3-5-2?

      • @Kralin – Just playing around mate. This is first (of a thousand!) draft.
        Heaton – Foster
        Lindelöf – Mee – Cédric – Alderw – Yedlin
        Sánchez – KDB – Hendo – Mc Arthur – Matic
        Mitrovic – Jesus – Kane

        • @bees393 Like me you’re maybe casting around for 4m defenders to help boost other areas. You’ve got some powerful players in there, and that’s the first draft I’ve seen I think with Sanchez, but other than KDB the midfield doesn’t look too strong. You may have to compromise – Sanchez to Ozil may allow that.

          I was thinking Ramsey of Arsenal but he could be a rotation risk; Xhaka could be safer?

          I’ve jumped on the Loftus-Cheek bandwagon in the hope he’s a regular starter at CP. However you’ve covered that with McArthur.

          If Tripper starts for Spurs he’s cheaper than Alder. Alder’s pretty good for points though.

          Lots to ponder.

        • @Kralin – Yeah…it is just playtime now…maybe after the pre season we will know more about the new teams and likely cheap starters.
          Have fun!

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