It is a commonly held myth that players earn more points when playing at home than when playing away. Is this true?
We have pleasure in presenting excellent analysis by Daire which shows the points earned by each player at home compared to when away, and also each player’s points per game at home compared to away.
Points earned at home compared to away
The below chart shows the number of Fantasy Premier League points each player earned at home compared to away last season. The closer a player is to the top right corner, the more points they score. To make the chart easy to read, Daire has added a simple trend line, so you know the “average” for most players.
A player high up the chart but on the left is a player who performs well away from home but not so well at home. A good example is Henderson, who earned 65 points away from home and only 35 points at home. This discrepancy could be for a number of reasons, but it is interesting when thinking about players who perhaps face three away games on the bounce.
Bale scored 150 points away from home and 100 points at home. Surprisingly, RVP, Mata, Cazorla, Suarez and Lambert all earn more points away from home than at home. Perhaps the pressure of the home crown adversely affects the performance of some players? This suggests these players are better choices for your Fantasy Football captain’s armband when playing away from home!
Tevez is the opposite, with 105 home points and only 64 away points. Same for Podolski, so a lack of game time might have lead to this discrepancy, or perhaps a preference for the manager to play the “star” at home – in the case of Hazard and Walcott.
I also noticed most of the defenders are to the right of the line, suggesting they earn more points at home – as you would perhaps expect. Yet there are a few notable exceptions. Mertesacker, Koscielny, Terry to name a few.
A great chart and a good launchpad for questions when thinking about players for your team next year.
Points Per Game at home compared to away
The below chart shows the number of Fantasy Premier League points-per-game each player earned at home compared to away last season. The closer a player is to the top right corner, the more points-per-game they obtain. Equally, a player high up the chart but on the left is a player who earns lots of Fantasy Football points away from home but not so many at home.
To make the chart easy to read, Daire has added a simple trend line, so you know the “average” for most players.
There are some players high up the chart who suffered from low game time, for example, Terry, Coutinho and Buttner. Ignoring these, the players in the top right corner are this seasons star players who all returned the points to your fantasy football teams – Bale, RVP, Suarez, Cazorla. There are also a few surprises with Rooney (so he did OK when he played), Dimi, and Ruiz. I had expected the Villa forwards to be higher, but then they only turned it on in the second half of the season.
It is interesting more players are on the right of this line, suggesting more points are earned away from home! I am not sure why this might be and I think some further analysis of these numbers would be worthwhile [any takers?] I was also surprised how few players average over 3.5 points per game both at home and away.
One final observation, I think this chart also gives a good indication of player prices. For example, making a line from top right to bottom left and following this down we can see Mata and Walcott are likely to be priced the same, as will Hazzard, Michu and Cazorla. Could Bale cost more that RVp next season?
I’m impressed with Daire’s contribution – thank you. It is a great tool and a natural next step would be to look at playing time at home vs away, as graphs of points and playing time would be powerful visualisations.