Fixture Changes

Minutes Played Advantage Theory For The Close Season

Before the start of GW32 I ran a Twitter poll. The question was, “In the last 6GWs do players who have played significantly fewer minutes in first 32GWs has a #fpl advantage over teammates?”

The reason for the question is that my perception is that they do have an advantage. I believe some player performances fall off towards the end of the season due to fatigue.

Other players who may have not played as much, due to one reason or another e.g. early season injuries preventing them from playing, not being the first choice player within a team for their position, January signings etc. can all finish the season well.

The perception of Twitter is the opposite of mine with 42% saying NO and only 27% saying YES. But what is the reality?

Proposal

In the last 6GWs, players who have played significantly fewer minutes in first 32GWs earn more fpl points than their teammates.

Methodology

At the time of writing I only had data for last season (2015/2016) and so the analysis was limited to one season. If there is demand, Chorley has said he’ll get me the data for previous seasons, so please do let me know your thought’s on my theory.

The analysis was further confined only to midfielders. This is because each team has at least five players in this position that can be compared. The same is true for defenders but their analysis has been left for another article. Forwards were not analysed as some teams Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City etc. have only one main forward who dominated playing time.

The analysis only compared team mates with each other. This was to remove any distortion caused by one team having easier fixtures than another over the last six game weeks.  Also the Twitter question was confined to teammates.

For each team I identified the top 3 scoring midfielders at the end of GW32. I wanted to remove those players who were not good FPL assets, such as defensive midfielders or players who had barely any game time in the first 32 GWs.

An example which can be used to explain the analysis better is Arsenal.

Theory Image

For each player I calculated their ‘Equivalent games played 1 to 32’ by diving their minutes played by 90mins. The players were then listed in descending order. Also shown is their Pts to GW32, % Selected and Price. Again, if this theory is interesting, Chorley can provide the stats by number of games played.

Plotted horizontally was their points scored in GWS 33 to 38. At each intersection is the equivalent games played over game weeks 33 to 38.

Findings

At the end of game week 32 not every team fulfilled the criteria of having one midfielder in their top 3 who had played significantly fewer minutes than the other two midfielders. Teams that did fulfil the criteria were Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Southampton, West ham and WBA.

There were teams whose top 3 midfielders played a similar amount up to GW32 so none had played fewer games. These included Man City and Leicester.

Other teams had a midfielder who did play significantly less up to GW32 but also played significantly less in the last 6 game weeks. These teams included Aston Villa, Man Utd, Newcastle, Stoke and Sunderland.

Two teams had both 1 player that had an advantage over the last 6 game weeks and one that didn’t. These were Liverpool and Norwich.

The teams that did fulfil the games played criteria were grouped into those who supported the theory and those that didn’t support it.

For completeness and to minimise the length of the article, the analysis for the teams that did not fulfil the games played or other criteria, is included in the appendix.

Teams That Did Support the Theory

Of the 8 Premier league teams that fulfilled the minutes played criteria there were 5 who supported the theory.

Arsenal

Ozil, Ramsey & Sanchez were the top scoring midfielders at the end of GW32. Ozil had played the equivalent of nearly 28 games, Ramsey 25 games and Sanchez the fewest at 20 games.

Theory Image 1

Over the last 6 game weeks Sanchez played nearly all the games and scored the most points of 49.

Ramsey scored the fewest points and played the least games.

Ozil played nearly 5 games and scored less than half the points of Sanchez.

Chelsea

Theory Image 1

In their case there are 4 players listed. At the end of GW32 Willian, Fabregas & Pedro were the highest scorers however, over game weeks 33 to 38 the highest scorer was Hazard.

Over the first 32 game weeks Hazard played the equivalent of 5 games less than Willian and Fabregas. Pedro had played even fewer games.

Over the last 6 game weeks they both continued to play less than Willian and Fabregas however, Hazard outscored them and Pedro did not.

It could be argued that Hazard and Sanchez were the best midfielders in their respective teams and simply fulfilled their potential or they were less fatigued and played better.

Tottenham

Lamela played the least over the first 32 game weeks and also scored the most over the last 6 game weeks. He could not be considered their best player. Note, due to a three game ban Alli played less than two games out of the last 6 game weeks whilst Lamela played nearly 5 games. Lamela took his opportunity and did well.

Theory Image 1

Bournemouth

Josh King did play significantly less than Ritchie and Gosling. Over last 6 game weeks they all played similar games and King nearly scored twice as many FPL points as his teammates.

Theory Image 1

Crystal Palace

Bolasie significantly played less than his team mates and scored more than Zaha and Cabaye

Theory Image 1

Teams That Don’t Support the Theory

There were three teams who had a player that played significantly fewer games than their teammates up to GW32 but then did not outscore them over the last 6 game weeks.

Southampton

Theory Image 1

Tadic outscored Davis but not Mane.

West Ham United

In their case Antonio played the least but it was Noble who scored the highest over the last 6 GWS.  This does not support the theory.

Theory Image 1

WBA

All players scored mid-teens in the last 6 game weeks.

Theory Image 1

This season

We are now at the end of game week 32, so are there any midfielders who have played significantly less games than their teammates?  I have analysed the teams and highlighted below some players who may have an advantage over their teammates in the last 6 game weeks.

Arsenal

Theory Image 1Arsenal is not in form and neither are any of their midfielders. They have two double game weeks and play 5 Premier league games in 14 days, over the last two weeks of the season. Rotation is inevitable but if you want Arsenal cover, Walcott could be a better option than Sanchez.

Liverpool

Theory Image 1Obviously, Mane is injured. In the last game Firmino didn’t start due to tiredness. Coutinho also didn’t start but this was due to him being ill during the week. He has played nearly 10 games less than Firmino and I do not expect he will be rotated during the rest of the season.

Man City

Theory Image 1This is showing the top 3 midfielders plus Sane & Navas who have both played significantly less than the top 3. Navas has played the last three games as a fullback. Pep’s philosophy is to play midfielders in every position so could Navas keep his place to the end of the season? He also appears to be a Bonus Point magnet, having been awarded 6 in the last three games. Can your team accommodate the ultimate differential?

Tottenham

Theory Image 1Eriksen has played nearly 30 games. Son has played less than 20 games. Now that Kane is back the assumption is that Son is most at risk of losing his place, but could Pouchetino rest Eriksen? Son is also in form and could he outscore both Alli & Eriksen in the last 6 game weeks?

Everton

Theory Image 1For anyone wanting to take a punt on an Everton midfielder maybe they should pick Mirallas over Barkley?

 

Conclusion

There is evidence that some players who had played significantly less did have an advantage over teammates during the last 6 game weeks. Examples were Sanchez, Hazard, Lamela, King and Bolasie.

There are also examples of players who did not have an advantage e.g. Tadic and Antonio.

The findings are not cut and dry as there could be other reasons why the players returned more points. However, when making transfers or playing wild cards towards the end of the season I think playing time over the previous 32 game weeks is a factor that should be considered. Get it right and the FPL manager could finish the season strongly and be propelled up their mini-leagues.

This season’s analysis of playing time to GW32 has indicated a number of players who could have an advantage over teammates, in the last 6 game weeks e.g. Walcott, Coutinho, Sane, Navas, Son & Mirallas.

Further work

The analysis was only carried out on midfielders for last season. It should be expanded to include defenders. Also it should be repeated at the end of this season to see if any of the highlighted players do well.

Appendix

Man City

Theory Image 2

Leicester

Their top 3 midfielders had similar game time up to game week 32 at about 28 games each. GW33 to 38 Albrighton played less than 2 games and so no surprise he scored the fewest points.

Theory Image 2

Aston Villa

Veretout and Gil did not play in the last 6 game weeks.
Theory Image 2

Manchester United

Their best player, Mata, scored the highest over the last 6 game weeks. Herrera only played less than half the games of the other two players in the last 6.
Theory Image 2

Newcastle

Shelvey played less than 1 game in the last 6 game weeks.
Theory Image 2

Stoke

Walters played less than 2 games in the last 6.
Theory Image 2

Sunderland

In the last 6 game weeks Lens played 1 game and Johnson no games
Theory Image 2

Liverpool

Firmino & Coutinho did play significantly less than Milner over first 32 GWs. Over last 6gws one scored more and the other less than him.
Theory Image 2

Norwich

Redmond was not in the top 3 up to GW32 but he had played significantly less games than Brady & Howson. In the last 6 game weeks he had more game time and scored twice as many points as any of the others. This would support the theory.
Theory Image 2
On the other hand Hoolahan who also played less than Brady & Howson had a similar score in the last 6 game weeks.

Everton

Theory Image 2
Only Barkley played any significant minutes and was any sort of meaningful FPL assets. The next two highest scoring midfielders played a maximum of 14 equivalent games up to game week 32. This meant that midfield duties must have been shared with the other players.

Swansea

Theory Image 2
Sigurdsson & Ayew played a similar amount of time. Cork is a defensive midfield and it is not fair to compare him with the other two players.

Watford

Not much to say. None of their midfielder’s did well.
Theory Image 2

Authors

  • Bio
  • Latest posts

InfernoSix

Fantasy football manager who is using stats to try and score 2500 points in 2016/17 season.

7 thoughts on “Minutes Played Advantage Theory For The Close Season

  1. Would the better comparison be diff in points per game (or points per game per million) for the first 32 vs. last 6? Seems like it would take the individual into account more and ensure you’re not just finding highly performing players who missed significant time throughout the season.

    If you do it for the Arsenal example, you’d see that both Ramsey and Sanchez had increased returns over the last 6 vs. Ozil whose decreased significantly.

    Click to enlarge image

    • @nshapir1 great point.

      I personally prefer rating players over 90 minutes (p90) in everything except FPL, where I believe in PPG over p90 because FPL points are on a PPG basis, not p90 basis. P90 is only really useful (in FPL, and IMO) when a player returns from injury, or is a new signing.

      I’ve offered this data to InfernoSix for his next article. However, I think the article is still thought provoking and the type of analytics I want to see on here.

      • @ChorleyRocks wasn’t trying to bash the article at all. It just got me thinking and I wanted to pose the questions back. Apologies if that came across poorly.

        • @ChorleyRocks @nshapir1 @InfernoSix First of all a great article and good points raised by both CR and nshapir1 to discuss about – quite thought provoking. Would like to see whether there is a pattern taking data from multiple seasons – I guess next season it will be more useful with data from current season. I am not sure what all parameters will be there….but we all know the below without any statistical analysis supporting the same:
          (1) Teams trying for UCL and EL positions will try to do well
          (2) Teams under relegation threat will try to do well
          (3) Mid table teams have nothing to play for and will have rotations
          (4) Ofcourse the top performers throughout the season might feel tired and their performance might degrade based on above 3 cases
          (5) Players who like to get good value in transfer market will try to prove a point
          (6) As WC is approaching, bench fodders/irregulars will also try to create impression to get more game time next season
          (7) Teams with change of coach/mgmt. will try to do well
          (8) Teams like LEI might try to do some justice to their last season success/reputation if they are thrown out of UCL

          Like these, various other factors might be there. More data (from multiple seasons) will help to see an approx. pattern.

  2. InfernoSix

    WOW, I really appreciate the time and research that you have put into this.
    There is a lot of info to chew over and digest here.
    Hope you don’t mind if I make a couple of observations/suggestions –

    1. Firstly, and possibly crucially, rotation will depend on the size of the squad.
    Taking midfielders listed on the FPL fantasy footy site as an example – Man City have 12 midfielders listed (inc 1 injured), whilst Burnley have 9 midfielders (inc 3 injured).

    2. Can I suggest a different layout for the table.
    Column 1. Players name
    Column 2. Games (or minutes) played to GW32
    Column 3. Points to GW32 ( you could add a column to provide Points Per Minute Per Game)
    Column 4. GW33 – GW38 points
    Column 5. Points Per Game GW33 – GW38 (again, you could add Points Per Minute Per Game.

    I am not sure of the need for the “Selected By” and “Price” columns, as these don’t have a bearing on the points earned.

    I hope you see this as constructive, if not helpful, suggestions.
    By all means call me a silly old goat if I have completely misunderstood the article

  3. What a brilliant article and research! Hoping Sane gets the game time for City having played the least already with them most at risk. Still feel 50 50 to the argument. Players like Sanchez for example go and go and don’t think the reason for his scoring will be to do with tiredness. Having wild carded already this is something for me more or less to consider next season!

Comments are closed.