Last week we recorded a first since the inception of the Prediction articles. The predictions of 3 human beings outperformed those of the math models and computer algorithms.
Mystic Megson, a former player/manager, “portvaled in this titonic tossil” topping the chart. He was followed by skysport’s Paul Merson, another former player/manager, and bbc’s LAWRO, yet another former player with a short managerial career. These pundits give us all hope that we may be able to pick a majority of winners going forward.
Now, on to the first week of the festive period when game weeks will be coming fast and furious. A comparison of the site prediction vs the RMT Adviser’s algorithm follows –
- 15 of 25 sites predict a draw while 33.4% of the RMT Adviser’s sims favor a WAT win & 32.4% favor a EVE win. With a small difference between the sim results, it would suggest that the RMT Adviser’s algorithm also trends toward a draw, possibly 1-1.
- 24 of 25 sites predict an ARS win and the RMT Adviser’s algorithm agrees with 55.6% of sims favoring an ARS win with a 13.4% chance of a 2-0 score at home.
- 15 of 25 sites predict a draw while 38.2% of the RMT Adviser’s sims favor a BUR win & 31.2% favor a BOU win. Once again a small difference in percentages would indicate that the RMT Adviser’s algorithm trends toward a draw also.
- 15 of 25 sites predict a CPL win and the RMT Adviser’s algorithm agrees with 40.6% of sims favoring a CPL win with a 10.8% chance of a 1-2 score at HUL.
- 10 of 25 sites predict a SUN win and 9 of 25 say a draw. The RMT Adviser’s algorithm disagrees on this match with 40.0% of sims favoring a SWA win with a 12.2% chance of a 2-1 score at home.
- 18 of 25 sites predict a MCI win and the RMT Adviser’s algorithm agrees with 36.2% of sims in favor of a City win with a 11.2% chance of a 1-2 score at LEI.
- 22 of 25 sites predict a CHE win and the RMT Adviser’s algorithm agrees with 58.6% of sims in favor of a CHE win with a 12.8% chance of a 2-0 score at home.
- 10 of 24 sites project a draw and 34.4% of the RMT Adviser’s sims predicting a MUN win & 40.4% predicting a TOT win. Another close call based on the sim percentages favoring TOT slightly, but a draw could also be in the cards.
- 14 of 24 sites predict a SOU win and the RMT Adviser’s algorithm agrees with 50.4% of sims favoring a SOU win with a 21.2% chance of a 1-0 score at home.
- 21 of 25 sites predict a LIV win and the RMT Adviser’s algorithm agrees with 57.0% of sims favoring a LIV win with a 13.6% chance of a 2-1 score at home.
Let us hope that as these “titonic tossils” take place this weekend we may all profit.
The statistical predictions for GW 15 are –
The site results from GW 14 were –
|# of Predictions||# correct wins/draws||# Correct Exact Scores|
|bbc.com – LAWRO||10||7||2|
|Poisson Model 2||10||6||3|
|4 sites tied||10||6||2|
|4 sites tied||10||6||1|
|RMT Adviser’s algorithm||10||6||0|
|2 sites tied||10||5||1|
|2 sites tied||10||4||2|
|3 sites tied||10||4||1|
|3 sites tied||10||4||0|
No claims are made that the predictions presented above will outperform the processes you currently use, or should replace what has worked for you in the past. They are offered to assist you in your weekly Prediction Game choices, lineup considerations, captain selections and as a time-saver for those managers lacking time to surf the Web.
And as always, “You pays yer money, and you takes yer choice”. This adage is what football score prediction is all about.
Since there are only about 18 hours between the end of GW15 & the start of GW16, let’s hope that there will be sites that can keep up the pace over the next few weeks.