Premiership Game Score Predictions

Sorting the Score Predictions for EPL GW 16 2017

This is the start of the hectic Holiday season with 6 GW’s over the next 23 days.There are also 5 EPL teams in action midweek (Tuesday & Wednesday) prior to the drawing for the Round of 16 on December 11. Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester City, Manchester United, and Tottenham are through to the Round of 16.

There is another important announcement that impacts FPL. The first BGW and DGW of the season will involve Spurs and Hammers whose match has been moved from GW 21 to GW 22. A lot of speculation will be coming as to whether to keep Kane or to sell and use the funds to upgrade the Midfield or Defense.

The RMT algorithm posted the following results from GW 15: 4 of 10 Clean Sheet projections correct, 6 of 11 teams to score 2 plus goals correct and 7 of 10 winning team projections correct. Not a bad weeks’ work.

In a never-ending attempt to generate the most accurate data available to FPL managers, let’s see what the ensuing GW’s simulations provide.

The RMT algorithm Predictions of Team Clean Sheets for GW 16 are – 

Home Away Sim% for H CS Sim% for A CS
Manchester United Manchester City 44.1 24.7
Swansea City West Bromwich 41.0 23.3
Burnley Watford 36.4 16.3
Huddersfield Town Brighton & Hove 24.5 32.4
Tottenham Stoke City 30.7 2.3
Liverpool Everton 28.5 5.2
Crystal Palace Bournemouth 27.1 24.0
Southampton Arsenal 18.3 25.6
Newcastle United Leicester City 24.9 15.0
West Ham United Chelsea 4.7 23.1

The teams in bold are projected to keep Clean Sheets. The possibilities are listed in descending order. In 7 of the CS predictions, the Home team is favored, as would be expected.

The Manchester Derby figures to be a cagey affair with United on the defense and City possibly trying to attack. There may not be a lot of goals involved. Of the other matches, defensive assets are available to gather points. The only problem match which gives me pause is the Newcastle v Leicester. The Magpies’ defense doesn’t instill a great amount of confidence from my point of view.

The RMT algorithm Predictions for 2 or More Goals Scored in GW 16 are – 

Home Away % Sim for H 2+ G % Sim for A 2+ G
Liverpool Everton 52.7 22.5
West Ham United Chelsea 23.3 50.5
Tottenham Stoke City 46.9 7.6
Southampton Arsenal 29.3 40.2
Newcastle United Leicester City 39.8 25.5
Burnley Watford 38.6 18.4
Huddersfield Town Brighton & Hove 21.4 32.1
Crystal Palace Bournemouth 31.1 28.6
Manchester United Manchester City 29.0 15.9
Swansea City West Bromwich 28.6 18.4

The teams in bold are projected to score at least 2 goals. Once more the possibilities for 2 or more goals are listed in descending order.

The top 4 teams listed in the Table have the offensive firepower to score 2 or more goals. Again Newcastle gives pause as far as attack is concerned. I may be wrong.

The offensive assets available to the bottom 5 teams in the Table may lack the ability to put 2 goals past the GK’s. The Manchester Derby match could very well turn out to be a 0-0 draw. These are just gut feelings on my part but don’t take them as gospel. (My squad has had red arrows the past 3 GW’s, lol).

There are multiple choices in the midfield that offer great possible point hauls, as well as hot strikers. They are all well known and I will not make any suggestions.

The RMT algorithm Predictions for Winning Teams in GW 16 are – 

Home Away Sim% for HW/AW/Draw Sim% & Projected Score
Liverpool Everton  51.5 / 11.2 / 18.4 11.5 / 2-1
Tottenham Stoke City 50.7 / 4.1 / 6.5 12.4 / 2-0
Burnley Watford 47.9 / 19.6 / 27.1 16.8 / 1-1
West Ham United Chelsea 10.9 / 46.8 / 20.3 10.4 / 1-1
Swansea City West Bromwich 45.2 / 24.2 / 27.7 15.8 / 1-1
Manchester United Manchester City 44.9 / 22.7 / 30.3 20.4 / 1-0
Newcastle United Leicester City 42.4 / 23.0 / 26.7 17.8 / 1-1
Huddersfield Town Brighton & Hove 25.3 / 39.3 / 30.5 18.0 / 1-1
Southampton Arsenal 26.3 / 39.0 / 27.6 14.9 / 1-1
Crystal Palace Bournemouth 34.5 / 28.8 / 32.0 18.8 / 1-1

The teams in bold are projected to win. The possibilities for wins are listed in descending order. Although wins are predicted for each match you can see that the simulations only predict winning scores for 3 matches, the remaining 7 matches look to be drawn.

The Statistical Score Predictions for GW 16 are – 

Home v Away Mean Mode Stats. Prediction
West Ham Unitd v Chelsea 0.3-2.5 0-3 0-3
Burnley v Watford 1.3-0.8 1-1 1-1
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth 1.2-1.0 1-1 1-1
Huddersfield Town v Brighton & Hove 0.8-0.8 1-1 1-1
Tottenham v Stoke City 1.9-0.3 2-0 2-0
Swansea City v West Bromwich 0.8-0.8 1-1 1-1
Newcastle United v Leicester City 0.9-1.4 1-1 1-1
Southamptom v Arsenal 0.5-1.4 1-1 1-1
Liverpool v Everton 2.5-0.4 3-0 3-0
Manchester United v Manchester City 1.3-1.4 1-1 1-1

The site predictions also project draws in 7 matches, but are not a mirror reflection of the RMT algorithm predictions. It would appear that schedule over the holiday season may see quite a few of reserve players in the starting XI’s. This may be the reason for the draw predictions at this point in time as managers attempt to keep their players fresh.

The Top Sites from GW 15 were – 

Site # of Predictions # of Correct Wins/Draws # Correct Exact Scores
football octopus.com 10 8 4
whoscored .com 10 8 1
football predictions.com 10 7 3
freesuper tip.com 10 7 2
premierleague propredictions.eu 10 7 2
bleacher report.com 10 7 0
weekend football.com 10 7 0
zcode system.com 10 7 0
sporting life.com 10 6 3

The top websites did very well this past week. The RMT algorithm came in at 5 correct win/draws and 2 exact scores, ranking in the lower portion of the table. These results would be about average compared to the yearly site prediction values.

I will try to keep up with the pace over the next 3 weeks and get the articles out in a timely manner. As always,”You pays yer money, and you takes yer choice”. Keep this admonition in mind as you go over these statistics.

Until GW 17 on Tuesday, 12/12, Good Luck.

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mosc1938

79 yr old retired water & wastewater Chemist from Philadelphia, PA; retired to Florida. Enjoying the game more through association with all on site.
Continuing my FPL educations with the help of quite a few friends.

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