First and foremost, as a native Philadelphian, I would like to offer my congrats to the NFL Superbowl LII champion Philadelphia Eagles. Fly Eagles fly! It’s been 58 years (1960) since the last time the Eagles held this honor, I was 21 years old. The game was played at Franklin Field, the home of the Pennsylvania University football team before the Eagles found a permanent home and prior to the Superbowl era. This was the team of van Brocklin, McDonald, Retzlaff, and Brookshier; all my heroes.
Now that I have celebrated that victory, let’s get down the business at hand.
Remember, Huddersfield Town, Swansea City and Tottenham played 4th Round FA Cup matches on Tuesday and Wednesday. The 3 have moved into the 5th Round matchups scheduled for next weekend. Due to these FA Cup matches the FEPL has a bye week.
The results from last GW’s simulations, be they good or bad, have led off the article. GW 26 yielded only 1 win in the 10 matches, 4 Clean Sheets out of the 10 and 6 teams recording 2 or more goals in the 10 matches. The CS and 2 or more goal predictions are what can be expected based on past history. Hopefully, the win value is an outlier and won’t be repeated.
The RMT algorithm Clean Sheet Simulations for GW 27 are –
|Home||Away||Sim% for H CS||Sim% for A CS|
|Newcastle United||Manchester United||19.0||39.8|
|Manchester City||Leicester City||33.8||4.6|
|Stoke City||Brighton & Hove||28.1||15.6|
|West Ham United||Watford||25.3||10.4|
The teams highlighted in bold are projected to record Clean Sheets.
- The Chelsea v West Bromwich and Manchester City v Leicester City matches both exhibit simulations that suggest very good possibilities for Clean Sheets.
- Following that line of thinking, the West Ham, Liverpool, and Tottenham matches could also signal a CS possibility, but to a lesser extent.
- Manchester United are favored by 2 to 1 to keep a CS on their visit to Newcastle as indicated by the simulations. Based on their defense it appears that this is a good punt.
- Of the remaining 4 matches, the 3 Home teams’ simulations suggest a CS, while Bournemouth is offered as a CS candidate.
The way scoring is occurring these days the choice of defensive assets will be left to your individual preferences. Usually, the CS sides would be favored to return points hauls, but we’ll have to see.
The RMT algorithm Winning Team simulations for GW 27 are –
|Home||Away||Sim% for HW/AW/Draw||Sim% & Projected Score|
|Chelsea||West Bromwich||64.2 / 9.6 / 19.1||17.2 / 2-0|
|Manchester City||Leicester City||57.0 / 8.2 / 15.6||12.5 / 2-0|
|Newcastle United||Manchester United||19.4 / 49.2 / 26.7||17.4 / 1-1|
|Tottenham||Arsenal||45.3 / 18.1 / 25.8||11.8 / 2-1|
|West Ham United||Watford||45.0 / 23.5 / 24.9||13.2 / 1-1|
|Everton||Crystal Palace||45.0 / 23.5 / 24.9||14.9 / 1-1|
|Huddersfield Town||Bournemouth||24.4 / 44.0 / 25.6||15.9 / 1-1|
|Stoke City||Brighton & Hove||43.7 / 23.5 / 26.5||17.1 / 1-1|
|Southampton||Liverpool||22.2 / 43.6 / 24.5||14.6 / 1-1|
|Swansea City||Burnley||38.4 / 28.3 / 32.3||19.9 / 1-0|
The winning teams are highlighted in bold. The simulations as to final scores are listed in the last column. You will notice that although there are simulations as to the winning team, the score simulations due not neccesarily agree with a winning outcome. There are 6 draws projected.
- Chelsea and Manchester City appear to be overwhelming winners on paper.
- Manchester United and Tottenham follow closely with their simulations suggesting a win. If Arsenal can get untracked the Spurs may be in for a tussle, but feel that United should be home free even though there is the chance of a draw.
- The next 5 matches are projected as wins for the highlighted teams and wins are likely to be what happens. Form over the last 6 weeks goes along with these teams winning.
- Swansea City v Burnley looks like a very even match that could go either way. Recent form goes to Swansea, and Burnley is not known to score on the road.
With the weird happenings in EPL this season making predictions as to which players will bring home the points is left to the individuals’ discretion. I hope the simulations generated will offer some assistance.
The RMT algorithm Simulations as to Teams Scoring 2 or More Goals in GW 27 are –
|Home||Away||% Sim for H 2+ G||% Sim for A 2+ G|
|Manchester City||Leicester City||53.0||15.6|
|West Ham United||Watford||48.2||28.8|
|Stoke City||Brighton & Hove||38.4||25.2|
|Newcastle United||Manchester United||15.8||36.2|
The teams highlighted in bold are projected to score 2 or more goals.
- Tottenham and Manchester City who are scoring at about the 3 goals/game rate at home are expected to maintain this pace.
- Matches 3 through 7 in the above Table are projected to reach the 2 goal level as per the simulations. Of the 5 matches. Chelsea at home appears to be the favorite to score against West Bromwich. The only problem is whether they can keep the Baggies from scoring.
- Stoke City & Swansea City look to be long shots to put 2 goals on the board.
- Manchester United with the right players in the first XI are capable of scoring, but will Jose park the bus or let them loose?
There are a few Captain selections among teams projected to score goals, and finding the right ones is the 64 dollar question. Lots of luck on that one.
The Statistical Score Predictions for GW 27 are –
|Stoke City||v||Brighton & Hove||0.9-0.7||1-1||1-1|
|West Ham United||v||Watford||1.1-1.0||1-1||1-1|
|Manchester City||v||Leicester City||2.6-0.6||3-1||3-1|
|Huddersfield Town||v||Bournemouth||0.6-1.7||1-1||1-2 or 1-1|
|Newcastle United||v||Manchester United||0.3-1.6||0-2||0-2|
If you were to compare the website experts’ and seers’ predictions against the RMT algorithm’s simulations some notable differences would be apparent. The simulations projected 6 draws while the statistical analyses yield 4 draws.
The Top Sites from GW 26 were –
|Site||# of Predictions||# of Correct Wins/Draws||# Correct Exact Scores|
|premier league propredictions.eu||10||6||2|
The RMT algorithm record of 3 win/draws and 1 exact score correct placed outside the top entries and we can only hope that next week will bring about a change.
Until then, Good Luck the Predictions Game. “You pays yer money, and you takes yer choice.”