I would guess that right about now Jolly Old St Nick is sitting down at his PC and scanning the spreadsheets to find out which FFF managers have been naughty or nice. I HO-HO-HO HOPE all and their families have a very Merry Christmas (was going to search for how to say it in all languages, but I’m too lazy), and that Boxing Day rewards you with green arrows in FPL and exact scores in the Prediction Game.
Last week saw the top 2 sites recorded 9 correct win/draws, and the RMT Adviser’s algorithm came thru with a respectable 8 correct and 2 exact scores. All 30 sites met or exceeded the 40% benchmark. As of this writing 20 – 24 sites have posted predictions, and here is what has been revealed.
- 10 of 24 sites predict a Wat win at home v Palace but 11 of the 24 say draw. 41.0% of the RMT Adviser’s simulations predict a Wat win with a 10.6% chance of a 1-0 score. This looks like a coin flip.
- 23 of 24 sites predict an ARS win at home v WBA and 57.4% of RMT Adviser’s simulations agree with a 12.8% chance of a 2-0 score.
- 10 of 24 sites predict a draw between BUR & MID while 8 sites predict a BUR win. 39.6% of RMT Adviser’s simulations predict a BUR win with a 19.0% chance of a 1-0 score. Looks like another coin flip.
- All the sites predict a CHE win at home v BOU and the RMT Adviser’s agrees with 57.4% of simulations predicting a CHE win with a 13.6% chance of a 2-0 score.
- 16 of 24 sites predict a LEI win at home v EVE and the RMT Adviser’s agrees with 47.0% of simulations predicting a LEI win with a 12.4% of a 2-1 score.
- All 24 sites predict a MUN win at home v SUN and the RMT Adviser’s agrees with 55.4% of simulations predicting a MUN win with a 17.8% chance of a 1-0 score.
- 9 of 24 sites predict either a WHU win or draw on their visit to SWA, but the RMT Adviser’s simulations of 31.4% in favor of SWA and 31.6% in favor of WHU would appear to lean toward a draw. This is just my take on the numbers since the RMT Adviser’s predicts a 2-1 SWA win in 11.6% of simulations.
- All 24 sites predict an MCI win at HUL and the RMT Adviser agrees with 45.4% of simulations in favor of a MCI win with a 10.6% chance of a 1-2 score.
- 21 of 22 sites predict a LIV win at home v STC and the RMT Adviser agrees with 54.6% of simulations predicting a LIV win with a 12.8% chance of a 2-0 score.
- 14 of 20 sites predict a draw between SOU and TOT, while 41.2% of the RMT Adviser’s simulations predict a SOU win with an 18.4% chance of a 1-0 score. Another “pick’em” match.
The statistical predictions for GW18 are –
|SWA||v||WHU||1.3-1.5||2-1||1-2 or 2-1|
The site results from GW17 were-
|# of Predictions||# correct wins/draws||# Correct Exact Scores|
|RMT Adviser’s algorithm||10||8||2|
|2 sites tied||10||6||1|
|2 sites tied||10||6||0|
|2 sites tied||10||5||2|
|7 sites tied||10||5||1|
|2 sites tied||10||4||2|
|2 sites tied||10||4||1|
As always, no claims are made that the results presented here will outperform your processes and what has worked for you in the past. They are offered as a possible time-saver for those managers lacking time to surf the Web, especially at this time of the year.
“You pays yer money, and you takes yer choice”. That’s what this is all about. Although the consensus of results here may help to point you in one direction or another, it is still your own instincts and gut feelings which determine your final choices. Good luck in the numbers’ game.
Next GW’s predictions may be a little dicey since there are only 46 hours between the end of Wednesday’s match and the start of Friday’s match. Hopefully, the sites will come thru and I can get enough data to make the stats meaningful. Keep your fingers crossed.