With the quick transition from GW18 to Gw19 I’m not sure how many data points I will have for this week’s statistical predictions. I guess most sites will wait until Wednesday’s match final to post. That leaves Thursday to pull it all together. Hope it works out.

GW 20 is even trickier with 2 matches on New Years Day followed by 6 matches on the 2nd of January. Then it’s back to a more manageable schedule.

No time to waste, so let’s get right into it.

- 11 of 13 sites pick EVE to win at HUL and 39.4% of Opti-bot simulations agree with a 10.2% chance of a 1-2 score.
- The sites are split, 6 to 6, between a BUR home win or a draw and the Opti-bot simulations are also split with 13.2% chance of a BUR score of 1-0 and 13.0% chance of a SUN score of 0-1.” You takes yer pick”.
- All 12 sites favor a CHE home win and 55.2% of simulations predict a CHE win with a 12.8% chance of a 2-0 score.
- 8 of 12 sites predict a LEI home win and 48.6% of simulations agree with an 11.4% chance of a 2-1 score.
- All 13 sites lean toward a MUN home win and 52.6% of the simulations agree with a 21.8% chance of a 1-0 score.
- 11 of 12 sites predict a SOU home win and 51.6% of simulations agree with a 22.8% chance of a 1-0 score.
- 7 of 12 sites predict a draw at home between SWA and BOU but the Opti-bot’s simulations yield a 33.0% to 28.8% chance of an SWA win with a 10.6% chance of a 1-0 score.
- 9 of 13 sites favor a LIV win at home and 42.8% of the simulations agree with a10.0% chance of a 2-1 score.
- 10 of 12 sites pick TOT to win at WAT and 48.4% of the simulations agree with a 15.2% chance of a 1-2 score.
- All 12 sites pick ARS to win at home and 50.4% of the simulations agree with a 12.4% chance of a 2-0 score.

**The statistical predictions for EPL GW19 are –**

Home | v | Away | Mean | Mode | Stats. Prediction |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

HUL | v | EVE | 0.4-1.5 | 0-2 | 0-2 |

BUR | v | SUN | 1.0-0.5 | 1-1 | 1-1 |

CHE | v | STC | 2.1-0.1 | 2-0 | 2-0 |

LEI | v | WHU | 1.5-0.8 | 1-1 or 2-1 | 2-1 or 1-1 |

MUN | v | MID | 1.8-0.1 | 2-0 | 2-0 |

SOU | v | WBA | 1.3-0.1 | 1-0 | 1-0 |

SWA | v | BOU | 1.1-1.1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |

LIV | v | MCI | 1.7-1.1 | 2-1 | 2-1 |

WAT | v | TOT | 0.5-1.5 | 0-1 | 1-2 or 0-1 |

ARS | v | CPL | 2.3-0.5 | 3-0 | 2-1 or 3-0 |

Since the final match of this game week has not been completed, I will leave the top sites portion of the article until next week. So, this week’s stats are short and hopefully sweet. I don’t know if it will be possible to get anything together before the next GW, but will do all in my power to try.

I hope all had a Happy Christmas and I wish you all a Happy New Year.

Thanks Mosc much appreciated

Great effort mosc,

Zaha replacement ….

@sibin francis i have philips..but he must covered as 4th or 5th mid..the other is ramirez…

Thanks Mosc,

Appreciate the speed in getting the article together and on site.

Wishing you a Happy New Year

@OldGoat Thanks, and a Happy New Year to you.

well done Uncle Mosc

your article make my mind up for who to captain this GW19;

Just realised that the Hull v Everton game is playing tonight.

Big rush to get my predictions done!

@OldGoat

You can just do for this game. Take your time for the rest. You can always change them up to kick off.

@IvanTheTerrible

All done. PHEW

I struggled with the Burnley v Sunderland and Liverpool v Man City predictions though.

Glad I looked at my team yesterday. Could have ended up making rash transfers otherwise.

@OldGoat

Lets hop we get it right. For the two games mentioned above I predict a home win for the first and a draw for the second.

@IvanTheTerrible

and I see that the first match in GW20 kicks off at 12:30 on Monday!

Think i will carry my FT over, unless faced with injuries/suspensions.

@OldGoat

The same here. This is the last crunch time for quick decisions and predictions. Very much like MLS.

@IvanTheTerrible yes indeed it is rotations red cards and injuries check my team it should be linked. Happy New year, mate. MLS starts in March.

@Coquis60

Happy New Year to you too. We should be used with this festive madness by now. Only 8 weeks to MLS

@Coquis60

You have four injured players. Did you miss the deadline

@IvanTheTerrible guess so I’ll have to look

@Coquis60

Don’t stress. You will have 2 FT and the new WC if you need to use it. We are only half way. Nothing lost yet

@IvanTheTerrible @SecretZorro some how my link is showing GW 3, I’ll see if I can fi the link. No I’m note Wanton in disguise I’m sure he knows quiet a bit more about the EPL then me.

@Coquis60

Just realized this. Your team looks great for this round

@Coquis60 are you Wanton in disguise?

@SecretZorro

He has not been on here lately, I bet you few deadlines missed

@SecretZorro

I have a question. Victor Moses joined Chelsea in 2012 but since then he’s been on loan to Liverpool, Stoke and West Ham. His first game was in August 2016. Can he be classified as a newbie?

@IvanTheTerrible Yes. Though if ‘my rules’ = ‘I make up the rules’ he can be anything you want.

@Kralin

I hope so. Just waiting for confirmation from Zorro the manager of all rules. He would be useful as I have to deal with Mane and Zaha. departures after GW 20.

Just curious, when is DGW? Liverpool is playing 2 games only 21 hours apart.

@NasiDagang None have been announced yet. One may be looming because Liverpool and Man U / Hull will be contesting the League Cup final. They will miss their scheduled games and these games will be rescheduled into a normal GW.

Liverpool play on Monday, not Sunday, so have slightly longer than 21 hours; the Monday games are a new GW.

@Kralin My bad, Liverpool is playing back to back so not counted as DGW.

1 : 0 hull leading by dawson

@masterdeds If that doesn’t dispel any lingering hope that the Everton defence is any good fantasy-wise, I don’t know what will (cue a brace from Baines).

@Kralin assist by davies

@masterdeds According to the Beeb, Dawson is now the Prem’s top-scoring defender this season (with 3).

@Kralin yup…and now maybe he became unsung hero at gw19

@masterdeds Hopefully for poor old Hull, who’ve not had much to cheer about. Useful source of cheap strikers, though.

@Kralin i am stay away from hull…they became hot and cold quickly

@masterdeds Snodgrass has a cult following.

But I wouldn’t touch them with a bargepole other than as bench fodder.

@Kralin I think I’m beginning to understand why Snodgrass has such a cult following.

@masterdeds Hmm, all square up north.

@masterdeds

Now Everton needs to come back with 2 goals. That was my prediction.

@IvanTheTerrible and will be shrek became blankaku or not..

@masterdeds

I got rid of him long time ago and don’t regret. Too inconsistent for my liking.

@IvanTheTerrible yup…n hope he blanks today n drop in price…because eve fixture look decent after new year..n if his mojo is back it became more interesting with kun back in form too…

@masterdeds

Maybe but always stay away from them. Most of them are up and down like a seesaw. Too risky.

@IvanTheTerrible Lukaku’s one of those players (the same thing always seems to happen with me and Eriksen) where when you have them in your side they blank; they then start collecting points the moment you drop them.

I know both Lukaku and Eriksen will probably be in the top 10 for strikers and midfielders come season’s end, which suggests the logic of just owning and leaving them in your side. But they can both be so frustrating.

@IvanTheTerrible yup happy with ibra n costa…3rd striker maybe tekkers or negredo (have him right now)…its too late to get caroll for punt at gw19

@masterdeds

I am exactly in the same situation. Don’t expect much from Negredo but they say miracles happen at Christmas

@IvanTheTerrible yup n marshall get own goal assist by mirallas

@masterdeds

And Snod who was on my radar

@IvanTheTerrible The entertaining Guardian coverage of the game says that, ‘Snodgrass could play for any team in this league. He is such a lovely footballer.’.

And there I was earlier, completely dismissing Hull players.

@Kralin

I always trust the Guardian in football and any other news. And I think they are spot on once again

@IvanTheTerrible yup snod…if he get consistent maybe he like mahhrez last season…but they agains wba next…and can be blank agains

@masterdeds

West Brom are not the power hose at the moment. So, no fear there mate

Antonio Conte reveals biggest injury worry is his own calf strain

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/chelsea-news-stoke-antonio-conte-calf-injury-premier-league-epl-a7502061.html

Just how poor are Everton, it’s 1-1 and Everton haven’t scored a goal, I cannot see Lukaku staying because Everton concede more than they score, then again Lukaku should be scoring more goals himself, I know he cannot do it on his own and needs support.

@Terminators Quite a lively game by all accounts and plenty of time for one of them to lose it. Lukaku could easily net tonight.

@Terminators 2-2 in the end and either side could have lost. Unfortunately for me one of my cup opponents (wisely) has Snodgrass; fortunately my nearest league challenger has Lukaku. So a mixed evening.

Barkley is back, but no Lukaku involved

Everton really should be beating Hull even away from home.

@Terminators Do you have Lukaku in your side, by any chance? If so, commiserations. On another night he could have scored a couple.

@Kralin No I haven’t got Lukaku.

@Terminator

No, they can not. That is their was time of the season. Expect some hope in mid February. Disregard the so called comfortable fixtures.