The International break has sorted the 9 Group winners headed to Russia. Next up are the 8 teams who placed second and are headed for home and away playoff matches. The draw will be held later today, and the play-off matches played over the period of the 9th to the 14th November. The pairings had not been decided as of the writing of the article.
Hopefully, your fantasy squads have made it through unscathed without major injuries. Those who have opted to use their WC during the break may have been disappointed about the lack of price rises. I count myself in this group.
A request was made to list the results of the top websites from the previous GW rather than reporting the complete record of all the sites. It will remove the groupings of the various sites with identical records. It is what I had done when these articles were first started. Let me know what the thinking is. Along with the top sites the RMT Algorithm’s results will be included for comparison.
The Top Sites from GW7 were –
|Site||# of Predictions||# of Correct Wins/Draws||# Correct Exact Scores|
With a record of 4 correct win/draws and no exact scores predicted, the RMT algorithm placed 14th out of 15.
The coming week’s summary below is based on the predictions from 18 websites available as of this date. Where there are multiple score predictions it is the result of differences in the Mean & Mode calculations.
The Statistical Score Predictions for GW8 are –
|Burnley||v||West Ham United||1.3-0.2||1-0||1-0|
|Manchester City||v||Stoke City||2.8-0.2||3-0||3-0|
|Swansea City||v||Huddersfield Town||0.6-0.8||0-0||1-1 or 0-0|
|Watford||v||Arsenal||0.7-1.5||1-1||1-2 or 1-1|
|Brighton & Hove||v||Everton||1.3-0.5||2-1||1-1 or 2-1|
|Southampton||v||Newcastle United||0.7-0.8||0-1||1-1 or 0-1|
|Leicester City||v||West Bromwich||1.1-0.9||1-1||1-1|
As can be seen, 3 matches lean toward Home wins, 2 to Away wins and 1 draw. The other 4 matches appear to be coin tosses.
The RMT Algorithm’s simulations below present the possibilities for team wins, and the score which is predicted by the percentage of simulations for that match. The winning team, and the percentage to indicate a win are presented in bold.
The RMT algorithm Predicted Winners for GW8 are –
|Home||Away||Sim % for HW/AW/Draw||Sim% & Projected Score|
|Brighton & Hove||Everton||41.0 / 27.1 / 26.8||15.5 / 1-0|
|Burnley||West Ham United||45.2 / 21.9 26.9||13.0 / 1-0|
|Crystal Palace||Chelsea||13.4 / 52.7 / 18.2||12.4 / 1-2|
|Leicester City||West Bromwich||49.6 / 15.4 / 27.5||13.2 / 2-1|
|Liverpool||Manchester United||25.5 / 38.1 / 29.6||10.0 / 0-1|
|Manchester City||Stoke City||53.5 / 2.6 / 10.0||13.4 / 2-0|
|Southampton||Newcastle United||39.0 / 27.5 / 31.5||15.8 / 1-0|
|Swansea City||Huddersfield Town||45.4 / 22.1 / 28.8||19.4 / 1-0|
|Tottenham||Bournemouth||53.3 / 3.0 / 9.9||12.5 / 3-0|
|Watford||Arsenal||17.4 / 40.7 / 23.5||9.5 / 1-2|
The predictions favor the Home team in 7 matches and the Away team in 3. The Away matches involve teams which are generally expected to win. The prediction of the outcome of the Liverpool vs United game has a low degree of confidence, with the 0-1 win to United occurring in only 10% of simulations.
The RMT algorithm Predicted Clean Sheets for GW8 are –
|Home||Away||% Sim for CS||% Sim for Score|
|Swansea City||Huddersfield Town||41.7||19.4 / 1-0|
|Southampton||Newcastle United||36.0 / 29.3||15.8 / 1-0 or 13.6 / 0-1|
|Manchester City||Stoke City||35||13.4 / 2-0|
|Tottenham||Bournemouth||33.1||12.1 / 2-0|
|Crystal Palace||Chelsea||33||10.3 / 0-2|
|Burnley||West Ham United||32||13.0 / 1-0|
|Leicester City||West Bromwich||31.7||12.4 / 1-0|
|Brighton & Hove||Everton||31.6||15.5 / 1-0|
|Liverpool||Manchester United||28.3||10.0 / 0-1|
|Watford||Arsenal||19.6||6.3 / 0-2|
The teams predicted to keep CS’s are presented in bold. The percentage of simulations generated to predict a CS are listed in descending order. The higher percentage of simulations, the more likely the possibility of a CS. In the SOU v NEW match, both teams recorded a % simulation which would indicate a CS, so this is a possible toss-up, with the odds favoring Southampton.
After 7 Game Weeks, I would hope that most managers have an idea as to which teams have the edge when it comes to defensive assets. I would not presume to offer advice on which GK’s and defenders hold or buy. With my ranking just inside the 1 million level you can see why.
The RMT algorithm Predictions for 2 or More Goals in GW8 are –
|Home||Away||Sim % for 2+ goal||Proj Score by Sim%|
|Tottenham||Bournemouth||50.4||12.1 / 2-0|
|Manchester City||Stoke City||49.4||13.4 / 2-0|
|Watford||Arsenal||30.5 / 49.0||7.9 / 2-2 or 9.5 / 1-2|
|Crystal Palace||Chelsea||47.8||12.4 / 1-0|
|Leicester City||West Bromwich||46.5||13.2 / 2-1|
|Burnley||West Ham United||40.0||11.1 / 2-1|
|Liverpool||Manchester United||35.7||9.2 / 0-2|
|Brighton & Hove||Everton||33.3||8.6 / 2-1|
|Swansea City||Huddersfield Town||31.1||10.5 / 2-0|
|Southampton||Newcastle United||28||9.6 / 2-1|
The teams which are predicted to score 2 or more goals are presented in bold. The percentage of simulations which relate to this occurrence are listed in descending order. The scores predicted are those with the highest number of simulations. The Watford v Arsenal match presents the possibility that both teams may record 2 or more goals; with Arsenal the most likely to score 2 plus goals.
As stated above on defensive assets, the attacking options for goal scoring by Midfielders and Strikers should be becoming more obvious. Scan the League Table to see which teams are piling up goals for and see if the cash is available to buy these assets. Just be aware to visit the injury sites to check which players may have a knock, or be rested depending upon the upcoming fixture.
Personally, I have both Kane & Lukaku, and have brought in Vardy on my WC. There are a few injured or doubtful Strikers listed and pickings are slim. Even Lukaku’s status has been called into doubt due to upcoming fixtures but remains in my team as a possible goal scorer. Kane is still the choice for Captain. As far as advice is concerned, this is all I can offer.
The article presents a lot of Tables and a raft of data. Hopefully, it is of some use in sorting out your fantasy lineups or pointing you in the correct direction for score predictions in the Prediction Game.
Good luck in the coming weekend, and as always, “You pays yer money, and you takes yer choice”.