As we enter the final 7 GWs of the current season the bulk of the chatter on site appears to involve the structuring of squads in preparation for the run to the finish. Managers who have retained their WC, FH Chip, BB and TC chips may an advantage over these coming weeks. Good luck to all as you painstakingly make these decisions.
The other talk on the site is related to the new setup for FMLS, which is causing quite a stir. The price rise calculations appear to be the main topic of conversation. The prices continue to rise in many cases making the selection of players a problem. Hopefully, the IT people have a plan and make it known to all soon. Many players have made known their displeasure with the current game direction. If MLS was hoping the attract followers with this new game they were mistaken as many “casual” user are being turned off on MLS.
On the subject on which this article was originally begun, the Prediction Game is also into its wind down. As can be seen from the leaderboard on the sidebar of the site the difference between the top spot and the #16 spot in 60 points. Those chasing the leaders will need to ride a winning streak to be able to close the current gap. Good luck and may all your predictions be exact scores.
With the BGW being in play and only 4 matches contested, my task was fairly light. The RMT algorithm record was 4/4 correct winning results, 2/4 Clean Sheets, and 4/4 teams scoring 2 or more goals. Now back to real-world predictions for GW 32, that is 10 matches scheduled.
The RMT algorithm Simulations for Winning Teams in GW 32 are –
|Home||Away||Sim% for HW/AW/Draw||Sim% & Projected Score|
|Manchester United||Swansea City||61.6 / 10.8 / 21.4||20.6 / 1-0|
|Newcastle United||Huddersfield Town||53.7 / 15.8 / 25.1||18.1 / 1-0|
|Arsenal||Stoke City||50.1 / 5.2 / 12.0||10.4 / 2-0|
|Everton||Manchester City||10.6 / 46.6 / 18.1||10.8 / 1-2|
|Crystal Palace||Liverpool||18.7 / 45.7 / 23.1||12.6 / 1-2|
|West Bromwich||Burnley||41.9 / 25.6 / 31.3||22.2 / 1-0|
|Chelsea||Tottenham||38.3 / 27.5 / 29.5||18.0 / 1-1|
|West Ham United||Southampton||37.8 / 26.8 / 28.9||17.4 / 1-1|
|Brighton & Hove||Leicester City||29.8 / 37.0 / 28.1||16.4 / 1-1|
|Watford||Bournemouth||35.1 / 32.3 / 25.1||14.4 / 1-1|
The teams highlighted in bold are projected to win according to this weeks’ simulations. In addition. the simulations favor the top 6 matches by the scores posted above. The final 4 matches in the Table are projected as being drawn and this may be the result of the close grouping of the simulation precentages generated for these matches.
- Wins for Manchester United, Arsenal, Manchester City, and Liverpool are what many managers would be expecting.
- The Toon v Huddersfield match may just be a battle for standings position.
- The Chelsea v Spurs match is one that I wouldn’t place a bet on either to win, so the draw might be the right result. It could be a goal fest or a bus parking scenario. Can only wait and see.
- The Hammers have the advantage as the home side, but the Saints may put a battle to get out of the relegation zone.
- Brighton have been in good form over the past 6 Home matches, so this match could go either way. Leicester City, on the other hand, have not been good away of late. Another match that is a coin flip.
- The Watford v Bournemouth match may be a battle for bragging rights as both teams appear to be safe as far as standings are concerned. A draw is very likely.
The RMT algorithm Simulations for Clean Sheets for GW 32 are –
|Home||Away||Sim% for H CS||Sim% for A CS|
|Manchester United||Swansea City||50.9||12.4|
|Newcastle United||Huddersfield Town||44.0||14.9|
|Brighton & Hove||Leicester City||20.5||24.2|
|West Ham United||Southampton||23.4||15.7|
- Manchester United, West Bromwich, and Newcastle United are the odds-on favorites to keep Clean Sheets.
- Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City are large favorites to record a Clean Sheet based mainly on the simulation percentages generated for these matches.
- Chelsea v Spurs has the feel of goals being scored.
- The simulations for the remaining 3 matches are grouped closely together and show no clear-cut favorites. Leicester City, West Ham, and Watford are matches that could result in a CS under the right conditions.
The RMT algorithm Simulations for Teams to Score 2 or More Goals in GW 32 are –
|Home||Away||% Sim for H 2+ G||% Sim for A 2+ G|
|Manchester United||Swansea City||44.2||9.0|
|Newcastle United||Huddersfield Town||40.9||14.9|
|West Ham United||Southampton||37.9||32.1|
|Brighton & Hove||Leicester City||29.7||36.8|
- Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Newcastle are in the running to scores goals according to the simulations generated.
- West Ham, Watford, Leicester City, and Chelsea come in with a lower percentage for scoring 2 or more goals.
- West Bromwich has the smallest chance to record 2 or more goals.
As is always the case, goal prediction is not a science, so take all these projections with a grain if salt.
The Statistical Score Predictions for GW 32 are –
|Crystal Palace||v||Liverpool||1.0-2.3||1-3||1-2 or 1-3|
|Brighton & Hove||v||Leicester City||1.4-1.1||1-1||1-1|
|Manchester United||v||Swansea City||19-0.2||2-0||2-0|
|Newcastle United||v||Huddersfield Town||1.6-0.2||1-0||2-0 or 1-0|
|West Bromwich||v||Burnley||0.4-1.4||0-2||0-1 or 0-2|
|West Ham United||v||Southampton||0.9-0.8||1-1||1-1|
The statistical score predictions compare favorably with the RMT algorithm simulations as far as winning teams and draws. The only difference is in the West Bromwich v Burnley match where the winning scores are reversed.
The Top Sites from GW 32 were –
|Site||# of Predictions||# of Correct Wins/Draws||# Correct Exact Scores|
|skysports.com – merson||4||3||0|
The RMT algorithm record from GW 31 was 2 win/draws correct and zero exact scores.
With the ongoing manipulations in trying to formulate an intelligent plan for GW 32 using the simulations from the RMT algorithm, and get it out in a manner that may be of use, along with stitching together a WC to take me though GW 32, GW 33, and beyond, my stress level is at a maximum and my brain is completely fried. I’ll leave you now with wishes for the best of luck this weekend and for the future.