Fantasy Football Game Review

Fantasy Premier League 2015/16 game week 37 Review (Part 3 of 5)

Fantasy Premier League 2015/16 game week 37 Review (Part 3 of 5) looks at possible differentials from Newcastle’s self-imploding draw against Villa, Spurs’ setback against Southampton and Liverpool’s 2-0 win over Watford.

Summary

It’s hard to pick out differentials from Aston Villa, Newcastle, Liverpool and Watford. However, Dusan Tadic has emerged as a decent option from Southampton as a potential “crazy scorer” in GW38 while a captaincy on Eriksen or Sanchez looks like a decent firm choice considering their opponents’ weaknesses.

Aston Villa 0-0 Newcastle

Tactical Expectation & Observations

Aston Villa

  • Villa’s 5-3-2 utilised the hapless Scott Sinclair in attack yet again alongside Jordan Ayew as the strike pair, while wingbacks Leandro Bacuna and Hutton were the only players out wide.
  • Without a consistent game plan in attack, Villa’s forwards often found themselves in space but they never got the service required to do damage. Westwood constantly sought Hutton on the right flank but crossing was extremely poor, unsurprisingly; without Gestede in attack, Villa only made 3 aerial duels in the box, showing how ineffective their strategy is despite persisting with a “cross from the right” plan.
  • One for next season, Idrissa Gueye’s tough tackling midfield certainly warrants a pickup by a mid-table club next season. Closet Lille fan bias aside, the energetic midfielder racked up stats enough to be eye-catching in Ultimate FPL with 11 Recoveries and 8 successful tackles. Villa’s energetic midfield aside, they were pressured into their own third for the majority of the game, suggesting that deep runners should profit.

Newcastle

  • The Magpies kept the same XI that beat Crystal Palace last time out. Janmaat was left on the bench as well as Mitrovic and Perez.
  • It remains a mystery why Papiss Cisse started over Perez and Mitrovic; the forward lacked any aerial presence, off the ball running or dribbling ability to trouble Villa at all. Most disappointingly, creative forces Townsend and Sissoko couldn’t get the better of their markers, which epitomises their season so far, really – if you’re unable to deliver the goods with the ability you have, you don’t deserve to stay in the Premier League.
  • While Chancel Mbemba had a field day against Villa’s poor crossing, it was noteworthy how many fouls Newcastle committed with their attempt to win the ball aggressively from Villa. I can see Eriksen as a GW38 differential with his set piece taking ability – his precision combined with the fouls committed by Dummett, Colback and Tiote is likely to force an unconvincing Darlow into some awkward moments.

Recommendations

While no one should be picked up obviously, the aforementioned Eriksen pick should be noted if you’re looking to close out the season by purchasing a player with motivation. Of course, for those who missed Alexis Sanchez’s fantastic goal from deep against Man City, look it up and expect the Chilean to do similar against Villa if you don’t have him already.
[sc name = “Berbacat”]

Tottenham 1-2 Southampton

Tactical Expectation & Observations

Spurs

  • In what turned out to be a bit of a let down having already surrendered their title challenge, Spurs surprisingly went down fielding their typical 4-2-3-1.
  • Although only Son’s mazy dribble eventually found the back of the net, the usual culprits (Kane/Eriksen) still led Spurs in shots attempted. It honestly appeared to be simply an off-day for Kane, who did manage to come within touching distance of scoring and ping his shot directly at Forster. Although Son and Lamela spent most of their time on the opposite flanks compared to their designated starting positions, Spurs still had the confidence to constantly play long diagonal balls.
  • The usually sturdy back line of Tottenham was called into question on several occasions; Lloris should be asked to do better on Davis’s opener, while Dier took far too long to close down on Davis when the Saint’s midfielder was clearing rearing to get a shot off. Perhaps it is not hard to fathom why Spurs had such an atypical performance, mainly because of their season ultimately having been deflated last Monday. For the last game week, it may sense to move on to other punts as Spurs seem ready to move on from this season.

Southampton

  • The Saints lined up in a 4-2-3-1 formation. Goalscoring Davis played in the hole behind Long.
  • The visitors were easily dwarfed in possession, but made up for their lack of time on the ball by playing directly when able. Tadic was a constant threat, oftentimes making a decisive run which would lead to a dangerous pass to an onward running Long or Davis. Tadic contributed three key passes, one of which cleverly found the foot of a surging Davis who capitalized finely. Davis as well was a constant presence in the attacking third, and his stat of most touches out of any Saints player epitomized his involvement.
  • Forster unfortunately was left red-faced after poorly misjudging his surge out toward Son, but played solidly in other areas. The Southampton goalkeeper completed a decent 66% of his long balls and did well to stop Kane from scoring within point-blank-range. Unlike other Premier League sides who ask holding midfielders to sometimes join in the attack, Wanyama and Clasie stayed rooted closer to the back four, a tactic which caused Spurs more difficulty in playing through balls.

Recommendations – Lead

Harry Kane FOR 10.2 HOLD

With the final week finally upon us, the big question is whether to go on a punt-frenzy or play it safe. For those leaders, sticking with Kane for one more week is the sensible route to venture. Capable of scoring home and away, Spurs have Newcastle next week, meaning Kane should be afforded plenty of chances to score. Watch the striker to improve on his single shot on target out of six attempts

Chase

Harry Kane FOR 10.2 SELL

Yes, Kane is also a chase subject as well, but instead as a player to consider selling. For those chasing, the final week represents an excellent chance to take chances on differentials, so it is only natural to consider selling Kane for an in-form player on a team with a goal to play for still, such as Defoe.

Dusan Tadic MID 6.6

Tadic has quietly gone under the radar the past month, but as Southampton’s form has remained solid, so as has Tadic’s form. This past weekend was the attacker’s fourth consecutive week scoring or assisting. Within the past four weeks, Tadic has registered two goals and a whopping six assists, and each week has earned at least one bonus point. If looking for a moderately priced punt for game week 38, look no further than Tadic whose side is pitted up against Crystal Palace for their final game.
[sc name = “WallaceFC”]

Liverpool 2-0 Watford

Tactical Expectation & Observations

Liverpool

  • 4-2-3-1, a change from the 4-4-2 employed in the defeat to Swansea, with only Sturridge, Coutinho, Skrtel and Stewart retaining their starting positions. This was no surprise given the Villarreal game only 3 days earlier.
  • The deeper positioned Stewart allowed Allen to control the center of the park. The main route of attack was a 45 degree pass to “tack” the ball up field, supported by the clever movement of Coutinho wide left and Ibe and Ojo frequently swapping from the center to wide right. The direct up-field passing and a lot of movement with the ball between the lines worked to go around Watford’s more rigid formation and the take away is that Branagan and Ojo will do well against the 11 center backs at West Brom this weekend.
  • Despite creating lots of chances in the box, with only 5 from 19 out of the box, and 5 from these 14 on target, Benteke should still be avoided because Liverpool are not playing to his strengths.

Watford

  • 4-4-2 with Britos back in central defence, pushing Cathcart wide at the expense of Paredes; otherwise unchanged.
  • Played zonally, with players passing to move the ball, rather than run with the ball. In possession Cathcart, Suarez, Watson and Anya were not as mobile as I would expect. This resulted in a lot of sideways passing and it stunted the attacks. The majority of chances created were from passes into the box, rather than from passes in the box; we know from prior analysis that the former approach is significantly less effective than the latter. The take away here is that despite Watford taking 11 shots in the box from 14 shots in total, only 3 shots were of enough quality to test the keeper.
  • Watford started out aggressive enough, looking to test the potentially dodgy pairing of Skrtel and Lucas at center back. Ighalo threatened on three occasions while Abdi had two reasonable attempts. However, a resolute Liverpool withstood these early attacks.

Recommendations

Sell rather than buy. We don’t know who will play from Liverpool, and Watford close the season at home to a relegation-threatened Sunderland.
[sc name = “ChorleyRocks”]
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Berbacat

A passionate fan of football related tactics, attempting to translate it into writing, futsal, and Fantasy Football.
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ChorleyRocks

Site founder, first used stats to try to win his work mini-league. Now helps other managers win theirs.
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Wallace F.C.

Avid follower of the Premier League, and Champions League. Class over fluke form in all fantasy games. I'm ready to help your team and offer my opinions.

3 thoughts on “Fantasy Premier League 2015/16 game week 37 Review (Part 3 of 5)

  1. Thanks Folks. Great stuff as always. :thumbup:

    I do think that Spurs still have something to play for. They are 2 points ahead of arch-rivals Arsenal in the race for 2nd place. Should they finish the season in 2nd place, it will be the first time since 1995 that they have finished ahead of the Gunners.
    Be certain that the likes of Harry Kane will be fired up for Sundays game

    • @OldGoat
      agreed, i will definitely hold HurryKane for last GW.
      the great point-promising option should come from: Spurs, ManCit, ManUtd, WestHam, as they still in the race for top table.
      let’s sell all our Liverpool’s asset from now as they should focus on Europe League Final on 18May.

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