My team was nominated as the official Fantasy Football First team. My job is to tell you how and why I have picked certain players and formations for the Fantasy Premier League, and explain my reasoning behind any changes along the way. This article explains the changes I have made to my team and why.
How did I do in game week 32?
In game week 32 I sold Defoe for Benteke. I scored 58 points and my rank fell from 76k to 96k.
Game week 33
At this point in time I have two choices. I can play my wildcard now and then chip in GW34 and GW37, or I can wild card in GW35 (or 36) and chip in GW37. I am ignoring GW36 for chip potential because I only have two chips remaining, and there are more teams with DGWs in 34 and 37. If you still have all 3 chips left then my advice is to Triple Captain in GW36.
My thinking is that there are more teams involved in game week 37, suggesting the Bench Boost chip will provide more points than the All Out Attack chip.
However, in the back-of-my-mind is the advice we have given FPL managers over the last 3 seasons of “never trust the GW37 DGW” because too many players are rested and there are many “freak” results. For example,
- in 2016 Swansea put 4 past Norwich, Southampton beat Spurs 2-1 at White Hart Lane, Sunderland beat Chelsea 3-2;
- in 2015 Southampton put 6 past Villa, Palace beat Liverpool 3-1, West Brom beat Chelsea 3-0;
- in 2014 West Ham beat Spurs 2-0, Sunderland beat United 1-0 at Old Trafford, Everton beat City 2-3, Chelsea drew 0-0- to Norwich and Palace earned a 3-3 draw against Liverpool.
It seems that when a top 4 team plays a top 4 team, the result is 1-1, while a team that “looks like being relegated” loses, and a team that “looks like it has a chance of avoiding relegation” produces a freak win; and Spurs usually capitulate.
This season is slightly different as I can’t see Spurs falling at the final hurdle. I feel it is more likely that United and Arsenal will fail to win the important games – if the games are still important by GW37.
With this in mind, I feel Chelsea, City and Spurs should do well in GW37; although I expect Spurs vs United to be 1-1. West Brom are 8th in the league, so beyond the obvious I won’t look to their players for my GW37 team, except perhaps on the bench. I think Sunderland are relegated and should be avoided. Southampton are interesting because they face United (who seem to accept that the Euro Vase is their easiest route to the Champions League) and Middlesbrough, so these games are hard to read. Arsenal could be in a position where top 4 is almost impossible by GW37, meaning the pressure is off and they should win their two games.
Therefore, my plan is to Bench Boost in GW37, Wildcard in 36 and All Out Attack in 34. I have selected GW36 and not GW35 for the wildcard because I feel the fixtures over 35 and 36 are only really consistent for City, meaning there is not advantage to playing in GW35. Indeed, a DGW37 player could be injured between 35 and 36, so by activating the WC in 36 I reduce the risk of carrying an injured player into GW37.
So starting with injuries, Gabbiadini remains on a yellow flag, but should be back today, meaning I can focus on building for GW34 on a AOA chip. My current GW34 team is
Alli, Hazard, Sanchez, Lanzini, de Roon
Gabbiadini, Benteke, Lukaku
So I have 3 DGW’ers and one transfer, with United, Palace and Middlesbrough to choose from. My thinking at the start of the week was that I can avoid bringing in anyone from United and ‘boro this week because they have hard fixtures. Zaha or Townsend might be an option for Palace, but I feel I have enough Palace cover in Benteke. Therefore, and this was my thinking at the start of this week, from a DGW viewpoint I am probably best rolling the FT and bringing in two DWG’ers next week.
Looking around the rest of the team,
- I can see Gabbi has really hard games, and Southampton are safe on 40 points. Given I brought him in on the expectation of a return over 3 easy games, I have no reason to keep Gabbi.
- Sanchez is not returning points level with his price. His shooting output has really dropped, with only 2 shots on goal over the last 5 weeks. While Arsenal do have something to play for in a top 4 place in order to gain entry into the Champions League, if the Gunners win their games in-hand then they will still remain outside the top 4. Arsenal remain reliant on United taking points from City and Spurs, and on relegation threatened teams taking points from Liverpool. Sorry Arsenal, I think your season is over and this is a good reason to sell Sanchez.
A double transfer of say Sanchez and Gabbi to Zaha and Zlatan would work well. If I make this move this week, I will pay a 4 point penalty to lose Sanchez vs ‘boro away and Gabbi vs City @home to bring in Zaha vs Leicester @home and Zlatan vs Chelsea @home. This does not seem like a great move, although Jose does have a point to prove against his old team and to his old adversary Conte.
The move also frees up cash for Lukaku to Kane! This is tempting because I feel Bournemouth are likely to concede more goals than Burnley. Is Kane worth a second 4ph? Well I am unlikely to captain Zlatan against Chelsea, but I am likely to captain Kane against Bournemouth. Captaining Kane could justify the hit.
I go for it.
To confirm, I have sold Sanchez, Gabbiadini and Lukaku and bought Ibrahimovic, Kane and Zaha for an 8 point hit. Kane is my captain.
Best of luck this week.