How its done

How are these statistics calculated?

PPMPG

A lot of FF managers seem to use average points per game as a way of reviewing players. This is fine when comparing two players of the same price, however, if the prices of the players differ then the average points per game comparison can be difficult. We could compare players on average points per million pounds spent. However, a problem with points per million is that not every player plays every game, as we noticed earlier in the 2012/13 season when Lloris was being rotated with Friedel and also Green was played over Cesar.

If only there was a way of comparing average points, based on the number of games played. There is! We can combine the two above measures to get the average points per game, per million pounds spent.

PPMPG(4w)

This uses the points per million per game from the last 4 weeks only to give an indication of current points-earning ability.

PPMPG (Rank)

We use PPMPG to calculate the potential points a player could earn between now and the end of the season. The higher the ranked player, the more points the player is likely to get (based on season to date, not based on upcoming fixtures).

PPM (Points returned per £ Million spent)

A player’s price is a reflection of his points scoring – either points-to-date in the case of Bale, or points-potential in the case of Rooney. As a rule of thumb, if a players “Price” on the FF Transfers’ page = their “Form” times 2, then they are performing to-par. So, are there any players not just beating this rule of thumb, but battering it? Players have been marked according to the average points over the last 4 weeks, compared to their price on Monday.

Fixtures

A rating of the 4 games using a Fantasy Football game difficulty checker. 1 point for easy, etc. If FA Cup game then classed as a “4″.

Player Consistency

Each week we produce player consistency Venn diagrams to help identify players who are demonstrating sustained form and consistently delivering over a number of weeks rather than just a big haul in one game. We update the diagrams to coincide with the Player Statistics article each week so remember to pop back and have a look in the right hand side bar to see who’s hot each every Thursday.

How do the Player Consistency diagrams work?

We believe that a team should be returning an average of over 64 points per week to win the Fantasy Premier League. This equates to an average of roughly 6 points per player per week (or 5.5 points if the captain does well). Therefore as a rough guide you should aim to have players who provide an average of 6 points per game (or 24 points across four weeks). For a forward the “6 points per game” rule is the equivalent playing more than 60 minutes and scoring one goal per game.

The diagrams show the players that achieved this benchmark over one week, two weeks and four weeks. Using the diagram we can quickly identify “red hot” players who have performed solidly across all four weeks as opposed to players whose stats are skewed from a significant points haul in just one game. The diagrams are also useful to see players who are showing signs of improving form (warming) and players whose form is slowing down (cooling).

Of course different players have different prices representing their points earning potential and every team will have players that will not achieve the 6 point target but are still worth keeping. A good rule of thumb for reviewing player performance is:

PLAYER PRICE x 2 = MINIMUM number of points you need them to earn over any 4 weeks.

Using this guide we can see that a player costing £12m should be making the benchmark of 24 points every four weeks to warrant their price tag.

Players that are shown as “red hot” in the middle of the diagrams make great transfer targets but as the statistics are based on current form you should always remember to check the upcoming fixture!

Caveat

The statistics are only ever backward looking. They give clues at players to look at. So, make sure you pick first team player and not a squad player who has had a lucky run.

  • Check the fixtures, because the Rank statistic is blind to the fixtures
  • Don’t shoot the messenger.
  • How it is worked out
  • Only players with a decent amount of playing time in the last four game weeks are shown
  • All ranks use playing time form only. They do not take into account non-playing time.

Got any questions? Ask us.